Wednesday 9 November 2016 12:13 pm

Donald Trump's Presidential election victory could be good for London house prices

Donald Trump may be about to take the White House, but here in Blighty we're more concerned about one thing: house prices. 

Thankfully, analyst Anthony Codling has already answered the question everyone was asking: what does a Trump win mean for London house prices? 

In the short term, he suggests, the London market may get a boost. 

"Our favourite new build development in Nine Elms, which is also the site of the new US Embassy, may see an uptick in demand should disillusioned wealthy and mobile US citizens seek relocation," he said.

"It will be interesting to see if changes in foreign exchange rates trump the Trump victory. Obviously it is difficult to call so early (and before any US election victory has actually been declared), but potential winners are Berkeley Group and London centric estate agents."

For the rest of the UK, effects are likely to be "limited", he adds. 

Read more: How to put your children onto the property ladder (without acrimony)

Net positive impact

Similarly, London Central Portfolio suggested Trump's win will have a "net positive impact" on the London market.

"Investors [will] retrench to blue-chip tangible assets as uncertainty on the political and economic stage is heightened once again," said Naomi Heaton, its chief executive. 

"Jitters in global equity markets driven by widespread speculation will be countered by flights to safety, with gold, the Yen and Swiss Franc set to benefit.

"While the result will likely move the global spotlight away from Brexit, repercussions may be felt across Europe with the prospect of anti-establishment votes becoming keener. At the same time, the likelihood of the UK Parliament thwarting the people’s mandate to exit the EU has dwindled.

Uncertain territory

Meanwhile, north London estate agent and former Rics residential chairman Jeremy Leaf added: "Even though Trump's early words of reconciliation are encouraging we are likely to see a further period of uncertainty because he will not be able to take any decisive action until he assumes power in mid-January.

"That is a concern – a further period of limbo after until action is taken and in that time markets are likely to remain in uncertain territory. This is particularly problematic as it comes on the back of 18 months of limbo when the election result had been too close to call.

"The knock-on effect on sterling and the FTSE inevitably has an impact on confidence here at a time when we’re already nervously anticipating the fall-out from Brexit.

"At the very least it looks like we will have fewer transactions, tighter lending criteria, less housebuilding and higher rents – which is exactly the opposite of what we’re looking for at the moment."

That said, other research has suggested it is now easier to buy a home in New York than it is in London….

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