DEBATE: Should the Airbus announcement be taken as a warning for the UK economy post-Brexit?
Should the Airbus announcement be taken as a warning for the UK economy post-Brexit?
Dr Victoria Bateman, lecturer and fellow in Economics at Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge, say YES.
I’ve always been obsessed with planes – with their style and ability to lift themselves off the ground and connect us across vast distances. Sadly, the latter seems not to be the aim of Brexiteers – even those who claim otherwise seem to be blindly pressing the button marked “deglobalisation” rather than the “globalisation” one.
In October 2016, Airbus UK was trying to be upbeat. “If Brexit is managed correctly”, the president said, “I truly believe this can be an exciting time of opportunity for British industry”.
Almost two years on, Tom Williams, chief operating officer, notes that Airbus has “sought to highlight our concerns” but “without success”, and that Project Fear “is a dawning reality for Airbus”.
Aerospace is a shining example of UK manufacturing. It’s the kind of sector that Britain needs more of, both to overcome stagnating wage and productivity growth, and to bridge regional economic divides. Yet it’s the kind of industry that Brexit will chew up and spit out as the reality starts to bite.
John Longworth, co-chairman of Leave means Leave and former director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, says NO.
The only way in which the recent announcement is a warning to the UK economy is as a reminder that business desires certainty – and the best way to provide certainty is to declare for a WTO global trade deal now. This would also send a clear message to the EU, while leaving open the possibility of a free trade arrangement. Yet this is an outcome that companies like Airbus are fervently seeking to frustrate.
The French-run Airbus is a classic multinational business, intrinsically wrapped up in the EU, that is trying to undermine the UK government’s negotiating position, just as it did during the referendum campaign
Airbus is claiming that it might relocate out of the UK because of uncertainty, but if we leave the customs union, nothing will change for it, as tariffs on aeronautical products are zero. Finally, it claims it may move production to countries outside the EU, like China and the US – which clearly can have nothing to do with Brexit.