City A.M. | Our MPC votes 7-2 against new policy
ALLISTER HEATH | CITY A.M.
“No change – there is enough money in the economy, and liquidity measures are increasing. The recent dip in sterling will merely import more inflation into the UK, won’t bolster exports and mustn’t be helped along by even loser monetary policy. The economy is stagnating but ultra-loose money is part of the problem, not the solution.”
GRAEME LEACH | INSTITUTE OF DIRECTORS
“Just after Christmas is not the time to jump the gun on the Bank of England’s base rate, or to make a change in the asset purchase programme. Let’s wait and see what economic activity and the broad money supply tell us over the next two months.”
SIMON WARD | HENDERSON
“Hold policy. Non-financial broad money is growing at a solid five per cent annual rate – a post crisis high – and this week’s British Chambers of Commerce survey confirms an improving economy. With inflation likely to move further above target, the MPC should signal that more QE is off the table.”
GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
“No change in rates or the QE programme. Though the economy remains weak, we expect the recovery to gather pace during 2013. If our growth forecasts prove right then this would be consistent with no need for further policy easing.”
VICKY PRYCE | FORMER GOVT ADVISER
“Hold policy, but consider need for further relaxation in the future. A weak GDP number for the fourth quarter of last year – which is likely – and further household uncertainty, as welfare and other cuts bite, will restrict growth as Europe stagnates. And the US fiscal cliff is still a risk as it has only been partially dealt with.”
VICKY REDWOOD | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“Cut the Bank of England’s base rate to 0.25 per cent, from its current 0.5 per cent level, and re-start quantitative easing with another £50bn of asset purchases. The economy is flatlining and needs more support. And the upward pressure on inflation won’t last.”
TREVOR WILLIAMS | LLOYDS BANK
“I would leave base rate on hold and QE at £375bn with a neutral bias. We should wait to see what impact the Funding for Lending Scheme has on the economy, and economic data is somewhat mixed with inflation still above target. Hence, this is a time to sit on our hands.”
ROBERT WOOD | BERENBERG BANK
“No change on interest rates but £50bn more QE. The UK is bouncing along the bottom, and that is likely to remain the theme for the next couple of quarters. The latest PMI surveys were disappointing, retail sales are showing no momentum and export conditions are tough. The UK can do better without setting off inflation.”
ROSS WALKER | RBS
“No change on interest rates and no change in the asset purchase programme. The economic backdrop is little altered since the autumn. There are tentative signs of improvement in credit conditions, aided by the FLS which remains the principal focus of policy.”