Scottish independence: Win or lose, Cameron is in for a rocky ride – View From Westminster September 16, 2014 David Cameron probably feels a bit like Noah at the moment, preparing for a great flood to come barrelling towards his ark, hoping the seals hold and praying there aren’t any leaks. But of course as any good DIY-er knows, there’s always a leak. And it’s usually in the place you least expect. The Prime [...]
As CPI inflation falls to 1.5 per cent, should the Bank hold off rate hikes until next summer? September 16, 2014 Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, says Yes. Quite possibly. The case for rates to stay low for longer is being aided by several factors. Global oil and commodity prices are low, and likely to stay historically weak due to subdued global demand (especially in key emerging markets such as China) and, in the case [...]
Independence would put Scotland’s entrepreneurial economy in jeopardy September 16, 2014 WITH the polls in chaos, and the likely result far from certain, it’s understandable that rival groups of influential Scots continue to argue the business case for and against independence. But amid all the interventions by large corporations, one important area has been neglected – what independence would mean for smaller businesses and entrepreneurs, both [...]
Radical uncertainty: Why the Scots could ignore business and follow the crowd September 16, 2014 AFTER months of Trappist silence, a plethora of large companies has pronounced on the adverse consequences for Scotland of a Yes vote tomorrow. The sectors span the economy – from oil to banks, from supermarkets to phone companies. But what will the effect of these interventions be? From the perspective of a rational economic person, [...]
Three compelling reasons why business should get behind British arts and culture September 16, 2014 WHY DO we invest public funds in arts and culture? Undoubtedly because they are part of our national conversation, and enhance our quality of life. Wherever you look, publicly-funded arts are making an important contribution to society; in prisons, hospitals, old people’s homes, schools and universities. But less acknowledged is the symbiotic relationship between arts [...]
Scotland could keep the pound – but at the cost of any monetary independence September 15, 2014 THE CONTROVERSY over the monetary and currency arrangements of an independent Scotland has dominated the referendum campaign, after Alex Salmond’s initial desire for a formal currency union with the rest of the UK was ruled out by all the other major political parties. Salmond has since strongly indicated that Scotland could use sterling unilaterally – [...]
Planning liberalisation is the closest thing there is to an economic silver bullet September 15, 2014 WITH low productivity, high inflation and terrible industrial relations, in 1977, Britain was a basket case. So that year, businessman John Hoskyns decided to dedicate substantial effort to analysing the UK’s economic problems. The result was a flow diagram, which sought to trace out the fundamental causes of the malaise. Hoskyns’s work pinned the blame [...]
Are the English and Welsh right to support a No victory in the Scottish independence vote? September 15, 2014 Ewen Stewart, a director of Walbrook Economics and author of Much Cost, Little Benefit for the Scottish Research Society, says Yes. Make no mistake – the break-up of Great Britain would be an earth-shattering event, the effects of which would be felt far beyond Scotland. The UK is viewed as one of the most stable, [...]
Why spurious financial precision may be killing our markets – and our fish September 14, 2014 The way we handle uncertainty determines our future. Many of mankind’s self-created problems, from financial crises to environmental devastation, arise from poor analysis of future risks and rewards. We lack confidence in our tools for handling uncertainty. Within the financial sector we’ve been partially burned by derivatives, mark-to-market, or value-at-risk. Scotland’s independence referendum may represent [...]
Staying silent about the real price of Scottish independence is a cop out – City Matters September 14, 2014 This week will see the most crucial poll in the United Kingdom for centuries – a poll on whether the UK will stay as it is or Scotland will choose to leave the Union. The business world has led with the view that “this is a matter for the Scottish people”. But this is also [...]