Is Vladimir Putin right that Russia’s economy will be back on its feet within two years? December 18, 2014 Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, says Yes. Russia’s citizens have been here before – they know the drill. Everything looks terrible now, but the positive spin is that we could see a new start in 2015. A solution to the Ukraine crisis is a pre-condition, laying to rest the political and financial stand-off [...]
How Britain can tackle its stubborn trade deficit December 17, 2014 AS WE take a moment to look back on 2014, there is one aspect of the economy that has underperformed – UK exports. Recent forecasts predict that British exports will be down on last year, having a tangible impact on overall economic growth. In fact, net trade knocked 0.5 percentage points off GDP growth in [...]
A tale of two crises: How the Eurozone created a 1930s-style catastrophe December 17, 2014 AS THE seventh anniversary of the start of the economic crisis approaches, and as the end of 2014 draws near, it is an appropriate moment to take stock. How far have we come over the past few years, and what lessons can we draw from it? At the time, the recession was simply not recognised [...]
Russia contagion: Global tailwinds should see the world through this crisis December 17, 2014 IN A global economy, disaster can spread as easily as it strikes. The world is watching as news from Russia looks increasingly bleak, with potential implications for other regions. But as the situation continues to evolve, how could other countries be affected? Russia’s situation is troubling, but there are also plenty of forces at play [...]
After a volatile week for global markets, is there still time for a Santa Rally? December 17, 2014 Adrian Lowcock, head of investing at Axa Wealth, says Yes. The so-called Santa Rally relates primarily to the last two weeks of the calendar year – the weeks of Christmas and New Year. In this two-week period, the FTSE 100 has put in its best performance of the year every year since 1986. A major [...]
The war on drugs began 100 years ago today: Let’s hope it doesn’t last another century December 16, 2014 One hundred years ago today, President Woodrow Wilson approved the Harrison Narcotics Tax Act, the US’s first national legislation designed to control the manufacture, import and supply of opium and cocaine. Francis Burton Harrison, a Democrat representative, did little more than give his name to the law. The heavy lifting was done by Dr Hamilton [...]
Why Ireland wants the UK to stay in the EU – and make the case for openness December 16, 2014 I ENTERED the Irish diplomatic service in 1978, just five years after the UK and Ireland joined the then European Community in 1973. This means that, throughout my entire professional life, our two countries have been partners within what is now the European Union. EU membership has been very positive for Ireland. It has also [...]
Londoners deserve better than Boris’s Wormwood Scrubs mini-Manhattan December 16, 2014 LONDON’s greatest strength is its ability to constantly regenerate. But amid unprecedented levels of development, we must be wary of leaving local communities behind. Seeing Boris Johnson’s name attached to a project immediately sets alarm bells ringing. The fantasy airport, the over-budget buses, the loss of strategic sites like Earl’s Court and Mount Pleasant. His [...]
Putin’s disaster economy now faces a perfect storm December 16, 2014 VLADIMIR Putin is surely receiving his long-awaited comeuppance, as his country struggles to deal with a full-blown currency rout, driven by plunging oil prices. For if the US and Saudi Arabia are indeed in cahoots to drive down the price of oil to smite their Russian enemy, as I have previously posited, one must admit [...]
As consumer price rises fall to 1 per cent, is subdued inflation a new normal for the UK? December 16, 2014 Samuel Tombs, UK economist at Capital Economics, says Yes. Low inflation is unlikely to be just for Christmas. A combination of lower commodity and import prices, alongside stable energy bills, should mean that consumer price inflation falls to comfortably below 1 per cent in the coming months. And while the impact of these factors is [...]