The first item in Theresa May’s in-tray: A Brexit-induced recession July 11, 2016 Theresa May will be the next UK Prime Minister, and sterling and the FTSE 250 rose almost immediately. Markets think that May will be more pro-EU than Andrea Leadsom, the tribune of the europhobic Tory grass roots. But don’t imagine that domestic political uncertainty was the only reason for the recent falls in the currency [...]
Westminster has been turned upside down by the people’s anger: The City could be next July 11, 2016 Most years I remember for a particular theme. The Olympics and the Diamond Jubilee in 2012 made the UK the happiest place in the world to be. After the crash in 2008, life was scary and solidarity was the theme; no one knew what was coming next but we stood side by side. This year [...]
Forget populist executive pay curbs: Prime Minister May should embrace these six policies to revitalise growth July 11, 2016 Predictably, those who demand more government spending both when the economy is doing well and badly are calling for increases to see off any potential post-Brexit slowdown. “Infrastructure spending” is the call of the day, with masses of supposed “shovel-ready projects” with high returns apparently lying around for the government to undertake. Unfortunately, in the [...]
With Remainer Theresa May becoming Prime Minister, is this a gift to Ukip? July 11, 2016 Alex Deane, a common councilman who sits on the Corporation of London’s Policy and Resources Committee, says Yes. Theresa May is a perfectly plausible candidate for Prime Minister and, while her striking illiberalism in her stint as home secretary is troubling, I do not doubt that, generally speaking, she will do well in office. But the timing [...]
A free Scotland will need the free market July 11, 2016 Two areas have dominated debate since the EU referendum result: economics and politics. The former has been a justifiable preoccupation for many, with an undeniable uncertainty having taken hold in many corners of the City. Meanwhile, the political debate centred first on Labour's internal collapse before turning to question of the Tory leadership. But there [...]
It’s easy to get away with an exaggerated CV: From Andrea Leadsom to super-hero interns, big claims too often go unchallenged July 11, 2016 Years ago, when I was at business school and applying for a summer internship, I came across the CV of a fellow student. It read: “X advised the chief executive of a consumer goods multinational on large-scale transformation. He developed from scratch the company’s risk management strategy, organisation and processes. He put together and led [...]
The South China Sea is a powder keg with disturbing echoes of 1914 July 11, 2016 With all the Brexit drama, it is easy to forget that on the other side of the world a contest for primacy is brewing that will probably do more to tell the tale of what our multipolar world evolves into than anything presently happening in Europe. If the US and China manage their emerging geostrategic [...]
Reassure EU migrants they can stay or watch these vital workers leave the UK July 11, 2016 The London Stock Exchange is run by a Frenchman. The Bank of England is governed by a Canadian. The mayor of London is the son of a Pakistani immigrant. London is, and always has been, an internationally focused, vibrant city, and this outward facing and welcoming nature must continue. It has now been two weeks [...]
Britain needs a state-backed infrastructure blitz to restore confidence in the economy July 11, 2016 Within weeks or months, the UK will have its first “Brexit Budget”. While Westminster focuses slavishly on the question of who might deliver that Budget at the despatch box, it is the content that could shape our economy for decades – and determine whether the European transition we now face is a great success or [...]
As fears of a banking crisis on the continent grow, are mega-mergers the way to fix Europe’s ailing banks? July 11, 2016 Vicky Pryce, a CEBR board member and former joint head of the Government Economic Service, says Yes. Despite concerns about banks perceived to be “too big to fail”, there has been considerable consolidation across the industry already. In Europe, Spanish banks have been reduced from some 50 in 2008 to just 14 by last year. Greek [...]