Could Britain’s vote to leave prompt other countries to exit the European Union in the years ahead? July 4, 2016 Klaus Dingwerth, assistant professor for political science at the University of St Gallen, Switzerland, says Yes. Facing the UK’s leave vote, other EU member states will not return to business as usual, and talk about a need for renewing the EU will be omnipresent. Fundamentally, the EU also needs a new legitimation narrative – a narrative [...]
Conservative leadership race must speak to the City July 1, 2016 As Michael Gove’s former head of communications, James Frayne, argued in City A.M. on Tuesday, nobody should be surprised that politicians lacked a ready-made vision of what Brexit will look like immediately after last week’s shock vote. UK politicians have abdicated responsibility over issues like trade policy to EU fonctionnaires for over 40 years, so [...]
From Brexit to Trump, the elites have lost control over politics – and anything could happen now June 30, 2016 Dread in the pit of your stomach. A sinking suspicion that your world is in decline and prosperity may end and never return. Fear over your financial future. Last week’s Brexit vote seems to have left the City feeling exposed and unprotected. Many report feeling powerless against the historic forces that have been unleashed by [...]
Forget post-referendum gloom: Britain’s economy will blossom outside the EU June 30, 2016 We have made history by becoming the first member state to give notice on our membership of the EU. But given that I will be explaining why I see the UK economy blossoming post-Brexit, it’s worth starting with a bit of my own history. I began student life in 1984 as an undergraduate at the [...]
How to leave the EU without tanking the British economy: By adopting a Norway-style relationship June 30, 2016 British voters have set their government a daunting task after last week’s referendum decision to quit the EU. Managing to leave the bloc and regain control over immigration without doing lasting damage to the economy and living standards requires consummate ingenuity. There is no time to wring our hands about how difficult it is. We [...]
Five stocks to watch following the Brexit market meltdown June 30, 2016 The UK’s stock market has quickly and efficiently established a pecking order in the wake of the EU referendum vote. Low-volatility stocks, defensives and dollar earners have generally done well, or at least much less badly, than cyclicals and, domestic plays such as retailers, banks and house builders. In addition, gold and silver miners have performed extremely [...]
Britain will need an effective opposition June 30, 2016 Given the scale of the change that the British people have voted for, and the chaos it has unleashed across European politics and markets, it may seem strange that the number one story in town has been the circular firing squad that currently passes for Her Majesty's Opposition. Jeremy Corbyn has endured days of high-profile [...]
It’ll take blood, sweat and toil, but Brexit can work for the City June 29, 2016 I cannot pretend otherwise: it was with dismay that I watched Thursday night’s EU referendum results unfold. My view that Britain should remain an EU member was less a tactical position than an authentic, passionate and long-held belief, as well as something I felt was firmly in the City of London’s interests. As I watched my [...]
Forget disintegration: The EU hard core is on track for a United States of Europe June 29, 2016 Prior to the referendum result, I thought the EU was at a fork in the road, facing two difficult ways forward: either a gradual fading away, or an existential crisis. Following the referendum, the weight of argument for both has increased. The fading away argument has a number of components. First, the number of member [...]
It’s premature to assume Britain will plunge into recession June 29, 2016 As the dust settles on last week’s referendum, pretty much every verdict I have heard or read agrees that the UK economy faces a period of contraction and the market has moved very quickly to price that scenario in. At first glance, this case is persuasive. There has been clear evidence of deferred investment in [...]