What will central banks do next? Prepare for more unconventional monetary policy, experts warn June 14, 2016 Eight years since the global financial crisis, and central banks are still experimenting with ever-more unusual ways to fire up their economies. “We have had QE money printing, QE involving corporate bonds, very cheap loans to banks, and in the US they have been buying up troubled assets,” explains Jim Leaviss of M&G Investments. But despite [...]
Apple had plenty of “I’d definitely use that” moments at WWDC June 13, 2016 Once again the Apple faithful dutifully attended or watched its annual developer update to see what the company had in store. Apple’s momentum with developers is staggering. It claims to have over 30m developers and since the iPhone launched, the company claims to have shared nearly $50bn (£35bn) of shared revenue with app makers. It remains the [...]
The Eurozone’s winners and losers – and how to close the gap June 13, 2016 While helpful in addressing the symptom, deflation, Mario Draghi’s quantitative easing cannot be expected to solve the Eurozone’s underlying problem – a monetary union devoid of economic union. Solving this will take years. The chart below tracks the winners and losers of the euro, since its introduction. It highlights how real unit labour costs have [...]
Remain campaign can’t rely on Labour voters June 13, 2016 With just 10 days to go until Britain votes on its membership of the European Union, how much ammunition do the two sides have left? The Leave camp feel they’re on to a winner with talk of Turkey joining the EU, not least with immigration remaining top of the list of public concerns. Number 10 [...]
Brexit could spark an EU renaissance if elites recognise their many failings June 13, 2016 One of the many things I do for my political risk firm is design and play war games for my clients – strategic, empirically-based simulations of the possible geostrategic futures out there, and how businesses can use this creative tool to survive and thrive in our present world, laden as it is with political risk. Some [...]
Britain must not turn its back on its friends and allies by leaving the EU Single Market June 13, 2016 The referendum on the UK’s continued membership of the European Union is just ten days away. While this decision on whether to remain in the EU and its integrated Single Market is the sovereign choice of the British people, it is important for voters to listen to the opinions of allies and partners from around [...]
Congratulate to accumulate: Britain’s no-praise business culture is holding our economy back June 13, 2016 A few weeks ago I spent three inspiring days in Silicon Valley. Part of the mayor’s International Business Programme and Silicon Valley Comes to the UK (SVC2UK), in partnership with the British Consulate General in San Francisco and London & Partners, I met legendary entrepreneurs, investors and senior executives such as Sheryl Sandberg at some [...]
With a June rate rise apparently off the cards, has the US Fed left it too late to normalise monetary policy? June 13, 2016 Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital, says Yes. The US Federal Reserve got the ball rolling by raising interest rates back in December and looked for an additional four increases this year. This was promptly shelved following the slide in markets in January. My view is that the Fed kept interest rates too low [...]
Don’t bank on an Uber moment… yet June 10, 2016 It’s an interesting time to be working with most of the world’s largest banks. If economic instability, skills gaps and a tsunami of regulation weren’t enough, they now face stern warnings from respected ex-colleagues about the future of the industry. Step forward Anthony Jenkins, the ex-Barclays banker who reiterated last week that banks are facing their ‘Uber moment’. That’s [...]
Why peers must press for a rethink on HS2 into Euston June 10, 2016 It’s been a rough few weeks for the HS2 project. Within days of winning election to City Hall Sadiq Khan questioned the current plans for HS2's London Terminus. News also leaked that the Cabinet Office, concerned at its exorbitant and escalating cost, is undertaking an urgent review of the whole project. This came after news [...]