A pound-euro rally is possible, despite GDP November 24, 2009 BRITAIN’S inability to emerge from recession in the third quarter was both a shock and a bitter disappointment. Traders had been widely expecting the economy to grow in the three months to September, albeit at an extremely slow pace. As a result of the unexpected contraction, sterling dropped more than a cent against the greenback [...]
LONG-TERM, GOLD BUGS ARE RIGHT November 24, 2009 BORIS SCHLOSSBERGDIRECTOR OF CURRNCY RESEARCH, GFT GOLD has been rallying since 2 November, when it broke through the resistance level of $1,050 per ounce and has continued to make daily record highs. But as its price continues to increase in dollar terms, the metal is encountering a rising chorus of sceptics who see it as [...]
Efforts to stem FX inflows are futile November 24, 2009 WHEN Brazil introduced a tax on capital inflows last month, it was a clear sign that governments are becoming increasingly concerned about the impact on their economies and on their currencies of a weakening dollar, and of foreign investors piling into their stock markets and bonds in search of higher yields. Other emerging nations have [...]
FOREX FLASH November 24, 2009 JPMorgan sees further falls for buck JPMorgan yesterday cut its 2010 forecast for the US dollar and predicted that the greenback will fall to as low as $1.62 per euro in the second quarter of next year. The continuing decline in the dollar will be driven by signs that the Federal Reserve will keep its [...]
THE TIPSTER November 24, 2009 THE dollar has been falling across the board, but against the Swiss franc it is now flirting with parity. The pair was seen at these levels in the first quarter of 2008, but the currency never managed to fall below SFr 0.9877, and a sustained break below parity would be moving towards uncharted territory. The [...]
China’s metals market retreat tempts bears November 23, 2009 WITH evidence of real recovery from the global economic meltdown still patchy at best, the mining sector – traditionally a “late cyclical” play – should by rights still be in its end-2008 trough. Yet 2009 has seen an amazing resurgence in the sector, borne up on an industrial commodity price recovery defying belief. Bellwether base [...]
SMALL CAPS SHOW MAIN STREET WOES DAVID MORRISON November 23, 2009 WHILE many stock indices in the US and Europe hit fresh yearly highs last week, a flick through the charts points to a loss of upward momentum. The trend for most major indices remains positive, but despite a strong rally following the dip at the end of October, the markets are looking tired. Focusing on [...]
THE LONDON REPORT November 23, 2009 BRITAIN’S top share index ended sharply higher yesterday, snapping a four-day losing streak, with commodity and banking stocks rallying after comments by a senior US Federal Reserve official. The FTSE 100 index finished up 104.09 points, or 2 per cent, at 5,355.50 and recorded its biggest one-day percentage rise in more than six weeks. The [...]
Looking out for Santa November 23, 2009 BY all accounts UK households are digging in for a frugal Christmas this year. Surveys from research groups like retail specialist Verdict predict that, with the threat of rising mortgage rates and tax increases in 2010, shoppers won’t be feeling too jolly this festive season, and spending will drop year-on-year for the first time on [...]
THE TIPSTER November 23, 2009 ASIAN markets have been struggling to keep up with the likes of European and US indices, which have continued to mark new highs for 2009. The Japanese Nikkei has failed around the 10,500 level a few times between July and October but its weakness could provide a buying opportunity ahead of the seasonal rally higher [...]