Switzerland’s shock migration vote has dealt the EU a huge blow February 10, 2014 THERE are two kinds of Eurosceptics. There is the pro-market, classical liberal variety: believers in the Four Freedoms – the free movement of goods, services, capital and people – across the countries of the European Union, but who oppose everything else, including political integration, the undemocratic nature of the European construct, the EU’s myriad subsidies, [...]
Why a Yes vote in Scotland would mean chaos in Westminster February 6, 2014 THE penny is beginning to drop in boardrooms across the City. It is all too possible, though still not the most likely outcome, that the Scottish electorate will decide to vote to leave the UK. The polls still show a large lead for the No side, albeit one that is shrinking. Large numbers of voters [...]
Britain is now being taxed so much that the pips are squeaking February 5, 2014 BRITAIN has become dangerously reliant on a small-number of highly paid and wealthy individuals for its tax receipts. If these people decide to leave the UK, or for some reason suddenly earn or spend less money, the public finances would suffer disproportionately. That is one of the conclusions I draw from a fascinating report published [...]
Global growth has peaked for now – but no need to panic February 4, 2014 IT’S NOT time to panic about the global economy just yet. Yes, equity markets are in freefall left, right and centre but the situation is far from universally disastrous. Growth is slowing after a strong run but isn’t about to end. There’s little chance of broad-based global deflation. The Fed’s belated decision to reduce the [...]
The City needs to start planning for a leftist Labour government February 3, 2014 THE TORIES are in trouble. The latest daily opinion poll from YouGov (for The Sun) confirms yet again that the Labour party would easily win the General Election were it held tomorrow. The Tories are on 33 per cent, Labour on 38 per cent and the Lib Dems and Ukip tied on 11 per cent. [...]
Britain’s consumers still have dangerously high levels of debt February 3, 2014 BRITAIN’S economic debate has moved on. A year ago, commentators were obsessed with whether austerity was good or bad for growth; today, with GDP roaring ahead, the big divide is between those who believe that the UK’s economic recovery is unbalanced and those who believe it will eventually turn out to be just fine. One [...]
Growth is back – but here are five challenges still facing the UK January 30, 2014 THERE can be no doubt that the UK’s economic picture has improved dramatically. Growth is back, employment is buoyant and optimism is returning. But the economy remains horribly scarred by the downturn, with many issues still needing to be tackled. Here are five especially pressing challenges. 1) Median incomes remain six per cent lower in [...]
Scotland’s referendum is a fateful moment for the whole UK January 29, 2014 ACTIONS always have consequences. If it votes for independence later this year, Scotland could theoretically introduce its own currency. In practice it won’t, and will have to choose: keep the pound, which will remain in the hands of the Bank of England, or join the euro, controlled by the European Central Bank. That means Scotland [...]
Federal Reserve’s selfishness triggered emerging markets chaos January 28, 2014 IF you want to know what old fashioned, hard-core monetary policy used to look like – the kind that those readers who lived through the UK’s European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) humiliation will remember – look no further than what happened to Turkey, a country at the epicentre of the growing emerging market crisis, last [...]
Labour’s proposed tax grab will backfire even before it starts January 27, 2014 HERE is how Labour’s misguided, punitive and anti-growth 50p tax plan could backfire almost immediately. If the Tories go into the election promising to keep the top rate of tax as is, and Labour to increase it by 5p, and it continues to look like Ed Miliband will triumph in May 2015 (albeit on a [...]