Editor’s notes: Brexit has damaged economists, not the economy October 28, 2016 A couple of years ago I interviewed Saatchi & Saatchi’s global CEO, Robert Senior. As we discussed possible future advertising trends he said “my problem with futurologists is that they’re never held to account”. He meant that predictions of what life will be like in 100 years are very hard to hold up in front [...]
Big ticket purchases help shore up consumer confidence October 28, 2016 Consumer confidence is still holding steady following the EU referendum, defying expectations of a freeze in spending. The GfK consumer confidence index, out today, came in at minus three in October, down slightly from minus one last month, but holding well above the minus nine recorded in the weeks immediately after the vote. GfK also found [...]
Theresa May must get serious about economic reform for Britain to weather Brexit turbulence October 27, 2016 The Prime Minister must begin to explain Britain’s role in the world outside the EU – something ambitious enough to match the enormity of the public’s decision to vote Leave. But she must also start explaining the need for a more dynamic and competitive domestic economy outside the EU. The two are inextricably linked. Britain [...]
Embrace road pricing to build the infrastructure we actually need without government borrowing October 27, 2016 It is odds on that Philip Hammond will announce in the Autumn Statement that government spending constraints will be relaxed to facilitate investment in infrastructure. We will be told that the government should borrow and invest more and that this will promote growth in the long run. This argument might have merit if it were not for [...]
Autumn Statement 2016: What do strong GDP figures mean for Philip Hammond’s first spending spree? October 27, 2016 Next month's Autumn Statement may not be the mighty spending spree some had expected, as today's expectation-beating GDP figures could prompt a rethink inside the Treasury about how far they need to go. Chancellor Philip Hammond has promised a fiscal reset, although growth of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter is significantly up on economists' forecasts and [...]
Following better than expected third quarter GDP figures, have Project Fear’s warnings been disproved? October 27, 2016 David Blake, a professor at Cass Business School, City University London, says Yes. The Treasury’s pre-Brexit scaremongering has been proven so wrong, but it sticks to its original, completely implausible assumptions. Its latest position is that those forecasts were made based on the assumption that Article 50 would be triggered immediately, and that no policy response [...]
What do today’s GDP figures mean for UK interest rates? October 27, 2016 The Bank of England looks set to delay another bout of emergency stimulus next week after this morning’s strong GDP figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK grew by a robust 0.5 per cent this morning, defying already-revised expectations of a 0.3 per cent gain in the first three months after the [...]
Growth smashes expectations and Nissan is investing here, but the pound still marches lower October 27, 2016 Expectation-busting growth figures, a new commitment to build cars in the UK, and diminishing chances of an interest rate cut this year weren't enough to stop the pound falling into familiar patterns today. Sterling suffered its customary afternoon sell-off yet again as the currency lost 0.6 per cent against the dollar, falling below $1.22 in afternoon trading. It [...]
Headache for ECB chief Mario Draghi as lending fails to light up October 27, 2016 The European Central Bank (ECB) may be forced to delay winding down its massive bond-buying programme after disappointing figures out from the Eurozone this morning. Stats on lending published by the ECB showed the amount of cash dished out to households and businesses grew by only 1.8 per cent in the year to September. That was [...]
Five things we learned from today’s GDP figures: Could Star Wars have saved us from a post-Brexit slump? October 27, 2016 A surprising set of GDP results came out this morning, revealing that the resilient economy had grown by 0.5 per cent in the last quarter. This was at odds to predictions from the Treasury earlier this year who thought that if the UK voted to leave the EU, economic growth could slow to one per cent. [...]