Carling Cup looks to be Anfield-bound
CARDIFF CITY vs LIVERPOOL
SUNDAY – 4.00PM BBC ONE
ENGLAND might be on drought watch at the moment, but one of the country’s most high profile dry spells looks set to come to an end this weekend.
The last time Liverpool won a major trophy, Steve Finnan, Djibril Cisse, Jan Kromkamp, Djimi Traore and Fernando Morientes were among those to receive winners’ medals as the Reds broke West Ham hearts with a 2006 FA Cup final penalty shoot out victory.
Even Sunday’s opponents, Cardiff City, have contested a final more recently, but the 2008 FA Cup runners-up are very much the underdogs, at 8/1, for this showpiece.
At a best price of 2/5 with Coral, not many expect the Reds to make a mess of their big day. However, they only need to look back to Birmingham beating Arsenal in last year’s final to know that upsets can happen.
Cardiff acquitted themselves well against Portsmouth at Wembley in 2008 and only lost 1-0 to a Nwankwo Kanu strike. Liverpool will be nervous and I can see them taking a little while to settle. Thanks to the high stakes, neither side is likely to come flying out of the blocks. Furthermore, Liverpool have hardly been expansive this season – with 29 goals in 25 league games, only six teams have scored fewer – so are unlikely to push their luck.
Cardiff are going well in the Championship, but have fallen off the pace a little, winning just once in five games since beating Crystal Palace over two legs in the semi-final. With the final clouding their focus, the Bluebirds can be forgiven that blip, but hitting your worst form of the season before such a big match is hardly ideal preparation. By contrast, Liverpool will be full of beans after bashing Brighton 6-1 on Sunday in the FA Cup.
I don’t doubt Steven Gerrard will be the one handed the trophy at the end of this match, but there are better bets than simply backing Liverpool to win at odds on.
It’s often worth a look at the half-time/full-time market in these situations. The Liverpool/Liverpool double result is favourite at evens, but the half-time draw/Liverpool win is far more attractive at 3/1 with Coral. In the last three, and in four of the previous five, League Cup finals, the scores have been level at the interval.
It will be interesting to see how Liverpool line-up, with Andy Carroll finally beginning to give an indication of why Dalglish made him the most expensive Englishman of all time and Luis Suarez back among the goals following his enforced lay-off.
But Craig Bellamy is the name fans of the Welsh outfit will dread seeing most. The Cardiff fan and former player has been a star performer since his move to Anfield and could well return to haunt his old employers. Coral’s offer to refund losing bets if he scores the final goal in the Carling Cup final will no doubt tempt Cardiff supporters.
It is not too far fetched to see Bellamy getting a late winner and Liverpool to win by a goal, at 12/5 with Coral, has caught my eye, while selling the Reds’ supremacy at 1.3 with Sporting Index is advised.
POINTERS…
Draw HT/Liverpool FT at 3/1 with Coral
Liverpool to win by a goal at 12/5 with Coral
Sell Liverpool’s supremacy at 1.3 with Sporting Index
ARSENAL vs TOTTENHAM
SUNDAY – 1.30PM SKY SPORTS
CAN Arsenal’s season get any worse? After the week they’ve just had, with their spineless 4-0 defeat in the San Siro followed by Sunderland’s comfortable 2-0 FA Cup win against the Gunners, the club’s fans will hardly think so.
However, a third loss in a row at home to Tottenham in the North London Derby could have the most lasting repercussions of all. Arsenal are already 10 points behind their visitors, who sit third in the table, and look to be in a four-way tussle with Chelsea, Newcastle and Liverpool for fourth place. Taking nothing from this game will seriously put at risk their chances of Champions League qualification for a 14th straight season.
Having ruled this part of the capital for so long, Arsenal are under huge pressure going into the game – and Spurs’ recent dominance of this fixture only turns that up a notch.
Harry Redknapp’s side are unbeaten in the last four league meetings, during which time they’ve mustered three wins, including a maiden Emirates victory last season when a two-goal half-time deficit was wiped out with three unanswered strikes after the interval.
The hosts are also handicapped by a huge injury list, which has decimated their already dodgy backline, but, despite all their problems, the hosts are rightly favourites for this contest, at 6/4 with Coral. Amidst this season’s traumas their home form has stood relatively strong, with only two defeats coming at the Emirates, compared to six on their travels.
Spurs’ overall away record is good, but Coral’s 9/5 shots have stumbled a little of late, having not won on the road in the top flight since a Gareth Bale brace earned them three points at Carrow Road in late December.
Redknapp hopes to welcome back a number of key players who missed their goalless draw at Stevenage, including Luka Modric, Rafael van der Vaart and Emmanuel Adebayor, and his team will carry a huge attacking threat, but I can see the sides cancelling each other out. Neither manager would be distraught with a point and the stalemate looks a decent bet at 9/4 with Coral.
Most draws are low scoring at 0-0 or 1-1 but there’s every reason to expect goals in this contest. There has been an average of four-per-game in the seven league meetings, since the start of the 2008/09 campaign, so back the draw with betting concierge service Bet Butler at a best price of 14/1. Sporting Index’s spread of 2.9-3.1 total goals should, therefore, be bought.
POINTERS…
Draw at 9/4 with Coral
2-2 correct score at 14/1 with Bet Butler
Buy goals at 3.1 with Sporting Index
QPR vs FULHAM
TOMORROW – 3.00PM
MARK Hughes is widely respected as a manager, but he hasn’t made the ideal start to life back in the Premier League with QPR. In five league games under his tutelage, Rangers have picked up just four points – not a great return, especially when four of those teams are currently in the bottom six.
QPR began the season reasonably well, but they dropped off alarmingly in November and it’s only the failings of others that have kept them just outside the relegation zone. Hughes will be expecting to see some more from his players as we enter the business end of the season, and a win against his old club Fulham would be the perfect fillip.
The Cottagers are having a solid if unspectacular campaign and are currently 12th in the table on 30 points. The home win against Stoke last weekend was a big result for Martin Jol’s side and they will go into this game with confidence having beaten the Hoops 6-0 at Craven Cottage back in October.
QPR have won only two of their 12 home games this term, while Fulham have managed just the one away success from 12 road trips. The bookmakers are finding it hard to split the sides and so am I. The draw looks the most likely result at 23/10 with Coral and I’m also going to take some of the 6/1 available with Blue Square about a 1-1 correct score. Spread bettors are advised to sell total goals at 2.4 with Sporting Index.
POINTERS…
Draw at 23/10 with Coral
1-1 correct score at 6/1 with Blue Square
Sell total goals at 2.5 with Sporting Index