Analyst picks for 28 February 2012
FOREX STRATEGIST
JOEL KRUGER
My pick: Buy dollar-Canadian dollar above Ca$1.0035
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
Our constructive outlook remains intact, with the market still consolidating around parity ahead of what we believe will be an eventual retest of key October highs by Ca$1.0660. Look for interday pullbacks to be very well supported above Ca$0.9900 on a daily close basis, while only a close below Ca$0.9900 would give reason for concern. Meanwhile, a close back above Ca$1.0035 confirms and should accelerate gains. Stops executed only on a close below Ca$0.9900 with a Ca$1.0600 objective.
STRATEGIST
ILYA SPIVAK
My pick: Sell S&P 500 (pending)
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months
Expect renewed risk aversion as jitters about the Greek bailout return amid implementation anxiety before the upcoming EU leaders’ summit and after G20 finance ministers failed to approve additional IMF funding. Prices put in a bearish Three Inside Down candlestick pattern, below the May 2011 top at 1,376.10, hinting a move lower is ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. I will look to enter short on a daily close below 1,358.60, initially targeting 1,331.40.
QUANTITATIVE STRATEGIST
JOHN KICKLIGHTER
My pick: Short Aussie dollar-dollar, long euro-swiss franc and dollar-yen
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
Volatility has picked up significantly, but sustainable trends are still elusive. Key into the end of last week was a rally for euro-based currencies, but follow through there is heavily dependent on highly fluid event risk. Nevertheless, I maintain my euro-swiss franc long view as the Swiss National Bank has vowed resistance. Still loaded like a spring, risk trends could play out for a number of pairs, but I’ll go with a Aussie dollar-dollar short should it clear $1.0575 while the S&P 500 slides.