As Donald Trump wins comfortably in Arizona, does he have a clear path to the Republican nomination?

Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump Holds Rally In Mesa, Arizona
Source: Getty

Tim Worstall, senior fellow of the Adam Smith Institute, says Yes.

To say that Trump is entirely unstoppable is perhaps a little too strong. As we used to say, who knows when Concorde might fall on your head – until it actually happened to one poor lady. But barring the absurd, Trump needs some 70 per cent of the remaining delegates available and he’s been gaining a little short of that in a more crowded race, so far. Ted Cruz needs 82 per cent of those remaining and he’s just not going to manage that.

Of course, none of them might make the 1,237 needed for the nomination, but I don’t think that the Republicans would reject Trump and his voters. Most seem to think a brokered convention would never choose The Donald, but I’m really unsure of that. I feel that the strength of the “a pox on all of the establishment” vote this time around is too strong for that.

The Republicans will end up with Trump, the Democrats with Hillary, and it will be one of those elections where you wish both sides could lose. But it will be entertaining all the same.

Ewan Watt, a writer on US political issues, says No.

After he sewed up Arizona’s 58 delegates on Tuesday, it would take Trumpian levels of chutzpah to rule that the real estate mogul won’t be the Republican nominee this November. And yet, despite authoring a book entitled “The Art of the Deal”, Trump has yet to close it with Republican primary voters, and will still be casting an eye towards his closest challenger – Ted Cruz.

Cruz is not only gaining more endorsements but benefits from a consolidated field. Trump also underperforms when only registered Republicans can vote, and two thirds of the remaining contests are “closed” primaries. Another concern for Trump will be the fact that, in every race, a majority of voters have opposed him.

Meanwhile, Cruz’s ability to win majorities and, potentially, gain “released” delegates from other candidates could open the race up to a contested convention in July. Unless Trump can tie-up the required 1,237 before then, he’ll fly into Cleveland extremely vulnerable.

City A.M.'s opinion pages are a place for thought-provoking views and debate. These views are not necessarily shared by City A.M.

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