Gold looks set to lose it’s shine in 2016 as markets calm down

Billy Bambrough
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The gold price may not be able to hold on to its recent rises as analysts forecast calmer markets (Source: Getty)

Gold, the perceived safest of havens, is unlikely to keep its gains in 2016, according to a survey of 31 gold watchers by the London Bullion Market Association.

Those surveyed produced an average price of $1,103 a troy ounce, down from the current price of $1,125.3.

The predictions ranged from $1,225 at the most bullish end to $960 at the most bearish.

Read more: What will happen to the gold market in 2016? Effects of the Fed rate hike and pro-gold policies in emerging markets

Joni Teves of UBS, the most bullish surveyed said:

While an environment of rising interest rates dampens the outlook for gold, the potential for US 10y yields to be capped and for equilibrium real interest rates to settle lower versus previous cycles – and arguably versus initial market expectations – suggests that gold has some room to recover.

In 2015 the average price for an ounce of gold came in at $1,160.

Not everyone agrees however, with some analysts predicting the price will continue to rise as equity markets stay wobbly.

Analysts said that in 2016 the outlook for the gold price will be dominated by the size and frequency of US Fed price hikes and the impact on the strength of the dollar.

Some volatility in the price is expected particularly given the political and economic uncertainty in the EU, Asia and the Middle East.

The gold price traditionally rises in times of economic and political uncertainty as investors cash out of stocks and commodities that may be sent sharply lower.

Meanwhile, analysts are more optimistic about the prospects for the price of silver in 2016, forecasting an increase of 5.4% to $14.74 with prices expected to trade in an average range of $12.63 to $16.78.

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