Thursday 18 September 2014 7:48 am

Will Scotland vote yes: Bookies change their odds on Scottish independence

After yesterday's swing among bookmakers towards a Scottish No vote (see bottom of article) there were some more changes among the bookies today.

Of the 19 that Oddschecker reports are still taking bets, all but five changed their stance on a Yes vote in today's Scottish independence referendum, while only seven held their ground on a No vote.

By doing some simple maths it is possible to work out the implied percentages, and betting companies have their money firmly on a no vote. 

The median probability across 19 bookies is that there is an 83.3 per cent chance the UK will stay together and a 22.2 per cent chance of a split.

Funnily enough, despite individual bookies having slightly changed the odds, the medians remain the same as some four have dropped out of the list.

A mean (which is open to being skewed by outliers) gives yes at 21.1 and no at 84.3, up from 22.6 and 82.8 yesterday. 

The disparity between the bookies' odds and the polls is striking given how close the polls have become

Here is how the individual agents changed their stance on Yes:

And on No:

And here are the latest odds:

The polls are very close, however, with the latest results showing a four-point lead for the no campaign:


The graphic(s) below show every poll that's been conducted this year. In the first chart (invisible on mobile) clicking on any scatter blot will show how people voted in that poll. The bigger and darker the blot, the larger the sample size.

How things looked yesterday

After a few days of relatively small changes, most bookies changed their odds on a Scottish Yes vote.

Of 23 bookies, only one (Betway) thought it more likely than the previous day that Scotland would vote Yes, while all but two showed odds shortening on a No vote.

The median probability across 23 bookies was that there is an 83.3 per cent chance the UK will stay together and a 22.2 per cent chance of a split.

This compares to rates of 80 and 26 per cent the previous day.

Here is how the odds have changed their odds regarding a No vote:

And a Yes vote:

Here are the latest odds: