Venezuela proves farce of political forecasting January 6, 2026 If history teaches us anything, it's that political forecasters almost always get it wrong. Just look at Venezuela, writes Paul Ormerod.
Labour ‘quietly hammering’ workers as pensioners benefit, think tank warns January 2, 2026 The Labour government is “quietly hammering” workers following the Autumn Budget’s stealth tax raid while pensioners and those on benefits are set to enjoy a jump in income, a think tank has said. In the November Budget, Rachel Reeves extended the freeze on income tax thresholds until 2031 – a move which is viewed as [...]
Rachel Reeves: Leak to the FT was inaccurate December 10, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves slammed briefings provided to media outlets in the lead-up to the Budget as she referred to a specific Financial Times news report which had “partial and inaccurate” information. In a Treasury Select Committee hearing on Wednesday morning, the Chancellor hit out at leaks in the months leading up to the Budget, adding [...]
Interest rates: Bank of England hawks to ‘look through’ Budget’s disinflation December 9, 2025 Bank of England policymakers struck a hawkish tone on the future path of interest rates despite acknowledging that the upcoming Budget would lower inflation. Appearing before MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, Bank staff analysis agreed with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that measures in Rachel Reeves’ November statement would strip 0.5 percentage points [...]
Stride criticises FCA for not investigating Treasury December 4, 2025 Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride has criticised the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)’s decision to hold back from launching an investigation into whether the Treasury engaged in market manipulation before the Budget, adding that there was a risk of a “precedent” being set where confidential information is leaked “without consequence”. Earlier on Thursday, FCA chief executive Nikhil [...]
The Leaky War: How Rachel Reeves and the OBR came to blows December 4, 2025 Between 5:16am and 11:30am on the day of the Budget, as Rachel Reeves was putting the finishing touches to her House of Commons speech, 7 audacious internet users made 44 attempts to break into the servers of Britain’s fiscal watchdog to get an early glimpse of her plans. An hour before Reeves stood up in [...]
Don’t like the OBR? Then stop borrowing so much December 4, 2025 The left and the right have found a common enemy in the OBR, but if governments don’t like having their headroom wiped out by forecasts they should try running a surplus, says Tom Harwood Voices on the left and the right have found an unlikely common enemy in recent weeks: the much maligned Office for [...]
FCA chief ducks committing to investigating Treasury briefings December 3, 2025 The boss of the City watchdog appeared to skirt committing to investigating Treasury briefings when pressed on the Labour government’s “possible market abuse” on Wednesday morning. Nikhil Rathi, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, has been lobbied by the Conservatives and other opponents to the Labour government to look into the rogue briefings on [...]
Here’s what should really bother Chancellor about the OBR December 3, 2025 An unprecedented row has broken out between the Chancellor and the OBR about short-term productivity forecasts, but what should really worry Reeves is the long-term projections for debt, says Paul Ormerod The row – no, the furore – between the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is unprecedented. The resignation of [...]
OBR chief hits out at ‘misconceptions’ in Treasury briefings December 2, 2025 A top economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has defended a decision to release a letter that contradicted anonymous Treasury briefings in media reports, adding that details in reports were “damaging” to the fiscal watchdog. David Miles, a member of the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC), told MPs on the Treasury Select Committee that [...]