Johnson & Johnson (J&J) expects sales of its Covid-19 vaccine to jump more than 45 per cent, pulling $3.5bn into the consumer goods giant.
The vaccine maker secured $2.39bn worth of sales for its Covid-19 jab in 2021, falling short of its own target of $2.5bn following faltering demand and manufacturing hang-ups.
J&J’s revenue forecast for the vaccine also exceeded Wall Street estimates, however, analysts at GlobalData have cautioned a sales decline over the next five years due to looming competition from Pfizer.
Pfizer anticipates sales of own vaccine, jointly developed with BioNTech, to hit $29bn this year. While Modern expects to rake in around $18.5bn.
J&J’s vaccine sales between 2022 and 2027 are forecast to generate $6.7bn, according to GlobalData, which would see the drugmaker earn $1.3bn in annual sales on average – undershooting its current target.
Meanwhile, Pfizer’s sales over the next five years are expected to fall around $134.3bn, GlobalData added.
“J&J is going to see strong competition from Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty in lower-/middle-income countries,” explained drugs databases analyst Camila Dalitz.
“The Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has found a possible link between J&J’s Covid-19 vaccine and rare cases of venous thromboembolism,” she added.
“In addition, the EU has recommended including a warning for the rare side effect transverse myelitis on the packaging of the vaccine. This adds to J&J’s problems as the company recently settled claims related to causing an opioid crisis in the US.”
Edwards Jones analyst Ashtyn Evans told Reuters: “I think we’ve known for quite some time that J&J’s vaccine didn’t have as good data as, say Pfizer. There aren’t really any expectations for vaccine contribution over the long term.”