EU leaders don’t believe UK will walk away from trade talks, according to the UK’s former ambassador to Europe
Senior European leaders do not believe the UK will follow through on Theresa May's claims "no deal is better than a bad deal", according to the UK's former ambassador to the EU.
May made the claim as part of her landmark Lancaster House address last month, warning EU leaders against seeking a punitive deal with the UK after Brexit.
However, speaking to MPs this morning, Sir Ivan Rogers said senior figures in Europe remain unconvinced May is prepared to crash out of the EU without establishing a new trading relationship, and defaulting to World Trade Organisation tariffs.
"The view of many will be that the implications for the UK of walking away without any deal on the economic side and without any preferential arrangement and walking into a World Trade Organisation-only world are – from their perspective, which may be a misreading [by] us – so unpalatable that we won't do it," Rogers told the House of Commons European scrutiny committee.
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Rogers also said there was a "genuine" possibility the UK could be presented with an exit bill of up to €60bn (£51bn) upon quitting the EU.
The European Commission's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has previously warned the UK will be expected to keep paying "tens of billions" into the EU until 2020.
Rogers said this morning Brussels has estimated a total of between €40bn and €60bn for contributions to UK-based projects and pension liabilities.
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Rogers stepped down last month, blasting "muddled thinking" on Brexit from the government in his resignation letter.
However, this morning he also strenuously rejected claims he leaked a memo which advised the Prime Minister on the duration of Brexit talks.
Rogers said document reflected growing views in Brussels it will take until the "early-mid 2020s" to negotiate a new trading relationship with with the EU, but strenuously denied he was responsible for its release.
"I never leak. Never would, under any government," he said.
"It had nothing to do with me."