The worst may be over, but the UK’s return to growth could be painful May 25, 2009 THE WORST is now over for the UK economy, but the path back to growth will be slow and painful, according to an increasing number of economists. While last week’s GDP figures confirmed the UK economy shrank 1.9 per cent in the first quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter – its sharpest [...]
ANALYST VIEWS: DO YOU EXPECT THE UK ECONOMY TO STEADILY IMPROVE FROM HERE? May 25, 2009 AMIT KARA UBSWe expect economic activity in the UK to expand by 1.1 per cent in 2010 instead of our earlier above-consensus forecast of 0.6 per cent. The UK will see an export-led recovery, which should benefit sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, aircraft manufacture and financial services. PHILIP SHAW INVESTECWe have revised up our GDP [...]
THE OPTIMIST May 25, 2009 THE recession is close to an end, in our view. Markets, commentators and, for that matter, central banks, are too pessimistic about how soon recovery might start and how strong it might be. The continued improvement in the cyclical indicators, the more recognisable nature of the recession and the proportionate, or more than proportionate, policy [...]
THE PESSIMIST May 25, 2009 WHILE the UK economy may have passed the absolute low point of this recession, any recovery is likely to be built on pretty fragile foundations. The key message from previous cycles is that, whatever their shape, full recoveries from UK recessions tend to take a long time. Even in the V-shaped downturn of the late [...]
AN ABUNDANCE OF GLITTER FOR THE ASIAN WOMEN OF ACHIEVEMENT May 21, 2009 LONDON’s most successful Asian ladies were out in force on Wednesday night for perhaps the sparkliest evening of the year, the Asian Women of Achievement Awards, in association with Lloyds TSB. The star-studded guest list included Prince Charles and Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall, as well as BBC Dragon James Caan, MP Tessa Jowell, Lib Dem [...]
OUT THIS WEEKEND PREVIEWS May 21, 2009 FILMTORMENTED Britain’s answer to the current vogue for teen slasher flicks. EVERLASTING MOMENTS Acclaimed Swedish period drama about a female photographer. THE GIRL CUT IN TWO The latest quirky film from French auteur director Claude Chabrol. DVDTHE READER Kate Winslet on Oscar-winning form as a former Nazi prison guard. SEVEN POUNDS Apallingly mawkish melodrama with [...]
REALITY CHECK AS UK DEFICIT SOARS May 21, 2009 TENTATIVE signs of a recovery in the UK economy were dramatically overshadowed yesterday when credit ratings agency S&P downgraded its outlook on UK debt and the scale of the crisis in the public finances was laid bare. S&P lowered its outlook on the UK’s prized AAA credit rating to “negative” from “stable”, giving a one [...]
A million jobs to go May 21, 2009 ONE million more people will lose their jobs before unemployment peaks in the UK, Bank of England monetary policy committee member David Blanchflower said yesterday. The economist forecast 100,000 jobs to go each month before the end of the year, warning of a “lost generation” unless the government moves to prevent job losses. Blanchflower is [...]
Ford slams state loans May 21, 2009 THE head of Ford in Europe yesterday struck out against the German government’s decision to offer a €1.5bn (£1.3bn) bridge loan to GM’s Opel division. John Fleming warned that the loan would give Ford’s US rival a competitive edge, adding that he was worried by the French states’ €6.8bn loan to PSA Peugeot Citro&1057;n and Renault.
A catastrophe made in Downing Street May 21, 2009 WE are moving ever closer to the day of reckoning. As if another set of dreadful public finance figures yesterday wasn’t enough, the markets were also rattled by S&P’s decision to cut the outlook for the UK’s sovereign credit rating from stable to negative. Years of fiscal profligacy during the boom years are finally catching [...]