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CITY VIEWS: DO YOU THINK THAT UNEMPLOYMENT HAS REACHED A PEAK?

<strong>PHIL CAULDER </strong> UBS<br />&ldquo;No, I think that there is more to come. Small businesses are still struggling, particularly consumer-facing ones. I think it will be at least until the end of the year, if not early next year, before things start to get anywhere near normal.&rdquo;<br /><br /><strong>COLIN ELLIS </strong>DAIWA SECURITIES SMBC<br />&ldquo;No, I don&rsquo;t think so. The economy will probably post a modest growth in the second quarter and, if you look at what happened in the 90s, unemployment is likely to be about 18 months behind the economy. I expect more jobs to be lost.&rdquo;<br /><br /><strong>JOHN FIRTH </strong>ACCLIMATISE RISK MANAGEMENT<br />&ldquo;I think unemployment will rise significantly because of cut-backs in the public service sector, which I expect to be severely under stress for some time. But the private sector may improve by the end of this year or the beginning of next.&rdquo;<br />