This forecaster is predicting a zero per cent chance of the UK staying in the EU

 
Emma Haslett
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Is it all over? A leading political scientist has put the chances of the UK remaining in the European Union at around zero per cent, after 81 areas reported.

Chris Hanretty said he predicted the vote for Remain to hit 47.1 per cent, which would give Leave an outright majority.

The figure has fallen from a 0.55 probability of Britain remaining after 10 areas had reported just after 1am.

"My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan," he said.

In a blog post earlier this month Hanretty pointed out that "the closer it is in Sunderland, the better it is for Remain".

Sunderland was one of the first areas to report - putting Leave at a pretty resounding 61.3 per cent.

So far, Leave has a marginal lead, with 50.9 per cent of the vote.

The news has caused the pound to plummet, falling 2.9 per cent against the euro to €1.2687 and 4.4 per cent against the dollar to $1.4218, one of its biggest falls ever.

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