Investors have become more downbeat on the global economy, according to new survey figures released today.
However, they are in no hurry to start ditching risky assets, the data from Absolute Strategy Research (ASR) shows.
The survey of 210 asset allocators, strategists and chief investment officers showed they believed the probability of a global recession over the next 12 months was 38 per cent, up from 36 per cent two months ago.
Yet they are slightly more optimistic on global stock markets, with the implied probability of them rising over the next 12 months up to 61 per cent from 57 per cent. A higher oil price has a 71 per cent likelihood, up from 66 per cent.
Investors also believe there is a bigger chance corporate bonds will provide better returns than safer government bonds over the next year than three months ago.
“Investors remain constructive towards risk assets like equities and credit, despite the muted business cycle. Although global recession is seen as unlikely, the risk is seen as unusually high compared with history,” said David Bowers, head of research at ASR.