Wales' squad may be decimated by injuries, but an analyst at investment bank Macquarie has crunched the numbers and still sees Warren Gatland's men beating the Springboks in Saturday's Rugby World Cup quarter-final.
Yet they will then be beaten by New Zealand in the semi-final, according to Macquarie, who predict the All Blacks to lift their third Web Ellis Cup, even if they failed to reach top gear during the pool stages.
The pre-tournament favourites comfortably won all their pool games against Argentina, Namibia, Georgia and Tonga but their performances were marked by a series of uncharacteristic mistakes.
The Macquarie model, which successfully forecast 80 per cent of pool matches, tips New Zealand to beat Australia in the final after dispatching Wales.
Ireland are forecast to triumph in their quarter-final over Argentina before succumbing to the Wallabies in the semis.
The model takes into account a series of quant factors including form, world ranking, historical performance and betting odds.
Encouragingly for Kiwis, the Australian investment bank correctly tipped Germany to win last year's Fifa World Cup.
Yet it hasn't always had the best of success in rugby. Not only did it say England would play New Zealand in this year's final before the tournament, ahead of England's triumph in the 2003 final it predicted Australia to win.