Hard versus soft Brexit is a fallacy: There are over 40 ways to leave the EU Writing about how Brexit will unfold is like trying to provide a running commentary on submarine warfare – speculative, largely pointless, and predictably over-focused on the strategic picture. An expression Brexit secretary David Davis will have to keep deploying in the coming weeks will be his new favourite, “froth”, as writers attempt to fill column [...]
Britain would have left the EU even if it had voted Remain Counterfactuals are the ugly stepsister of political risk analysis, neglected and scorned in equal measure because – as they deal with events that have never occurred – they can never be definitively assessed. We find this all more than a little amusing, as the first rule of any world-class analyst is humility, that nothing (good [...]
