El Nino heatwaves to ‘fuel inflation next year’ Economics The ‘Super El Nino’ triggering record temperatures across Europe could add a full percentage point to inflation next year, hampering central bank efforts to slow down price rises, a top investment bank has warned. According to an analysis by Jefferies, harsh weather unleashed by the meteorological phenomenon will pose “an inflationary threat” next year and [...]
As it happened: Stocks sink after Fed and Bank of England opt for hawkish hold; Oil price tumbles Markets Welcome back to the City AM liveblog. Interest rates were left unchanged at 3.75 per cent in Bank of England’s monetary policy committee meeting today as rate-setters wait to find out whether the Iran war peace deal holds up. The Bank’s decision followed Thursday’s inflation data, which stayed below undershot expectations after coming at 2.8 [...]
As it happened: FTSE 100 see-saws after inflation undershoots; Oil at $80 as Trump threatens ‘dropping bombs’ on Iran Markets Welcome back to the City AM liveblog. Fresh inflation data this morning showed a reading of 2.8 per cent leading the consumer price index unchanged from May. This came under the expectations of a poll of City analysts by Bloomberg that forecast inflation would come in at three per cent for May. Core inflation, which [...]
As it happened: FTSE 100 rises as oil slips; Analysts warn of ‘short-lived’ inflation drop May 20, 2026 Good morning and welcome back to the City AM liveblog. The City has welcomed news of undershooting inflation this morning, but warning signs already suggest it’s a temporary blip. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.8 per cent in the 12 months to April, that’s under the three per cent pencilled in and a major drop [...]
UK manufacturing at four-year high but costs rise at pandemic pace May 1, 2026 The UK manufacturing sector broke to a four-year record in April but the constraints triggered by the Iran war threatened to upend growth prospects. The latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from S&P Global put the industry’s reading at 53.7 – its best since May 2022. This marked its sixth consecutive month above the neutral 50.0 [...]
UK set to suffer £35bn hit from Iran war as growth downgraded again April 29, 2026 The UK risks finding itself on the brink of recession as a result of the Iran war, a leading economics think tank has warned, as the potential damage to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal headroom and the threat of interest rates hikes has been laid bare in a new report. In what will come as dire reading [...]
Unemployment to peak at 5.8 per cent as jobs market faces ‘biggest hit’ since pandemic April 20, 2026 Britain is set to be “pushed to the brink of a technical recession” in the coming year as the economic fallout of the war in Iran dampens growth prospects and sends unemployment soaring. The latest Item Club report sees the UK economy flatlining in the second and third quarters as it digests the consequences of [...]
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks soar as Trump claims ‘victory’ in Iran; Economists clash on inflation March 25, 2026 Welcome back to the City AM liveblog. Fresh figures this morning revealed inflation rose three per cent in the year to February 2026, unchanged from the 12 months to January 2026. Grant Fitzner said: “The largest upwards driver was the price of clothing, which rose this month but fell a year ago. “This was offset [...]
Mortgage deals shrink by a fifth since outbreak of Iran war March 23, 2026 The number of mortgage deals on offer for homeowners have shrunk by nearly a fifth since war broke out in Iran just over three weeks ago. Just shy of 1,500 fewer residential mortgages were available on Monday morning, compared with March 9, amounting to a contraction of 19.5 per cent. According to financial information platform [...]
What does the Middle East conflict mean for global growth? March 23, 2026 Middle East conflict sends shockwaves through oil, inflation and global growth: This is what Investec experts are thinking In our latest Q&A, Investec experts Callum Macpherson (Head of Commodities), Philip Shaw (Chief Economist) and Chris Holdsworth (Chief Investment Strategist for Investec South Africa) explain what could happen if the Middle East conflict continues, what key [...]