Is the IMF right that a vote to leave the EU would lead to sharp drops in share prices? May 13, 2016 Aengus Collins, country forecast director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, says Yes. Volatility in the UK’s financial markets would unquestionably surge in response to a vote to leave the European Union. Although the medium-term economic impact wouldn’t necessarily be dramatically worse than the baseline, the immediate aftermath of a leave vote would potentially be brutal. The [...]
Lord Lamont hits out at both Mark Carney and Christine Lagarde in just two days May 13, 2016 Lord Lamont has slammed what he sees as the "avalanche of institutional propaganda" which has been flung about in the EU referendum debate this week. In his second blistering attack this week, the former chancellor who served in the governments of Margaret Thatcher and John Major, has taken aim at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for its [...]
IMF Brexit analysis will be published just days before the EU referendum May 13, 2016 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will publish a full assessment of how Brexit will affect the UK economy less than one week before Brits go to the polls on 23 June. While issuing a stark warning that a vote to leave the EU could trigger a recession – the second in two days after Mark Carney's [...]
Eurozone GDP misses expectations May 13, 2016 Eurozone gross domestic product undershot expectations in the first quarter, data released today has shown. European statistics agency Eurostat said the single currency union's economy grew 0.5 per cent in the first three months of 2016, representing a downward revision from its initial estimate of 0.6 per cent. Read more: Germany records strongest GDP growth for two [...]
Brent crude and WTI: Oil prices slump as strong dollar hits demand May 13, 2016 Oil prices slumped today, dragged down by the strong dollar and Russia's warning that the the global oversupply could last longer than expected. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 0.5 per cent to $47.9 per barrel this morning. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, shed 0.8 per cent to $46.3 per barrel. Russia said yesterday [...]
IMF head Christine Lagarde backs up Mark Carney in battle over a Brexit recession May 13, 2016 Brexit could push the UK into recession, hit wages, lead to higher prices and shatter London's status as the financial capital of the world, Christine Lagarde, head of International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said today, in the second high-profile Brexit warning in as many days. With less than six weeks to go until the EU referendum, – described [...]
Cranes down: Pound falls as UK’s construction output plummets in the first quarter of 2016 May 13, 2016 If you're a crane enthusiast, look away now: the UK's construction output suffered a shock slowdown in March, official figures have shown, as fears over the referendum began to bite. The pound was down 0.25 per cent, at 1.4415 against the dollar after the figures, which showed output in the sector fell 1.1 per cent in the first [...]
Brexocalypse Now? The multi-billion pound Brexit risk to the Square Mile, mapped May 13, 2016 Here's another apocalyptic view of the potential consequences of Brexit – this time on the City of London. [Scroll to the bottom to see a visualisation of how Brexit could affect the City's property sector] New research suggests billions of pounds in property value and thousands of jobs are at risk of being wiped from the [...]
Germany records strongest GDP growth for two years, but remains in deflation May 13, 2016 Germany confirmed its status as the powerhouse of Europe in the first quarter, as its economy grew by a mighty 0.7 per cent in the first three months of the year. The German statistics agency this morning confirmed that stronger domestic demand, buoyed by higher levels of employment, helped Europe's largest economy to more than double its rate [...]
Glencore has taken out a big bet on North Sea oil May 13, 2016 Embattled miner and trader Glencore has taken out a big bet on the equally troubled North Sea oil and gas industry. Both have been hit by the commodity price rout, in which oil prices tumbled from over $110 per barrel to below $30 earlier this year. The Swiss firm built up one of the largest positions in [...]