The trouble with statistics: The same flaws afflict economic data as political opinion polls September 13, 2016 Who will win the US presidency? Opinion polls have got a bad name in Britain, at least. During the 2010 general election campaign, many suggested that Gordon Brown could still continue in power in a minority government or coalition. The polling record in the 2015 campaign was even worse. Most polls showed the two main [...]
Sterling still drifting on weak inflation figures September 13, 2016 The pound has slumped this afternoon on the back of weak inflation figures, taking the currency to a two-week low against both the dollar and the euro. Sterling drifted by one per cent against both the major currencies after inflation came in at a weaker-than-forecast 0.6 per cent in official figures out this morning. Economists [...]
Before the bell: What you need to know before the US market open September 13, 2016 The chances of the Fed raising rates for the second time since the financial crisis next week are fading but it hasn't entirely put the brakes on the global stock sell off. Here's what you need to know before the US market open at 2:30pm London time. US futures are pointing down despite getting a [...]
Oil tumbles after IEA warns oversupply will last until mid-2017 September 13, 2016 Oil plummeted today after the International Energy Agency (IEA) pushed back its expectations for the long-awaited recovery of the embattled market. The Paris-based group said that the supply dynamic is unlikely to change significantly in the coming months, meaning it will remain oversupplied until at least the second half of 2017. It had previously forecast no surplus by this point. [...]
UK inflation flattened out in August September 13, 2016 Inflation remained flat at 0.6 per cent in August, still way below the Bank of England's two per cent target, official figures have shown. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the consumer price index (CPI) missed expectations of a 0.7 per cent rise. “Fuel costs falling more slowly than a year ago as well [...]
As the monetary policies of the US, the UK and the Eurozone diverge, what should investors make of this fork in the road? September 13, 2016 Since the end of last week, speculation has been mounting that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year. The probability of a September rate raise looks slimmer after the Fed’s most dovish official, Lael Brainard, struck a cautionary tone in a speech yesterday. But there is a strong chance that the next [...]
Hammond highlights growing importance of non-EU trade September 12, 2016 Discussions between chancellor Philip Hammond and some of the UK’s biggest exporters focused yesterday on the growing importance of trade with non-EU countries. Hammond hosted representatives from Honda, GlaxoSmithKline, Airbus, and Scotch Whisky Association at Downing Street. UK exports have more than doubled over the last 17 years, with over half of total, making up [...]
Doves back on top as key Fed member eases on US rate hike September 12, 2016 The chances of the Fed raising rates for the second time since the financial crisis next week has been dealt another blow as a key rate-setter said the case for a hike had fallen away. Lael Brainard, seen as one of the most cautious voices on the rate-setting federal open markets committee (FOMC), said the arguments in [...]
Bank of England corporate bond buying details unveiled September 12, 2016 Electricity companies are set to be big winners from the Bank of England's upcoming corporate bond buying programme, according to official documents published this afternoon. Threadneedle Street has unveiled the details of its £10bn money-printing programme which will see it buy high-quality company bonds, with one-quarter set to be channelled to electricity companies such as [...]
Buyers beware: Is the central bank credibility crunch point approaching? September 12, 2016 Market contrarians continue to close out their short positions on stocks, bonds and risk currencies as buying supports market levels, record low bond yields and emerging market assets. But can central banks continue to win the confidence game and herd investors into riskier trades, or will the credibility of Draghi, Kuroda, Carney and Yellen ultimately be [...]