The French economy returned to growth in the third quarter, but it’s far from formidable October 28, 2016 The French economy grew again in the third quarter of this year, after contracting in the second quarter – suggesting things are beginning to look up across the Channel. Figures from French statistics authority Insee showed GDP grew 0.2 per cent between July and September, up from a 0.1 per cent contraction in the quarter [...]
Editor’s notes: Brexit has damaged economists, not the economy October 28, 2016 A couple of years ago I interviewed Saatchi & Saatchi’s global CEO, Robert Senior. As we discussed possible future advertising trends he said “my problem with futurologists is that they’re never held to account”. He meant that predictions of what life will be like in 100 years are very hard to hold up in front [...]
Big ticket purchases help shore up consumer confidence October 28, 2016 Consumer confidence is still holding steady following the EU referendum, defying expectations of a freeze in spending. The GfK consumer confidence index, out today, came in at minus three in October, down slightly from minus one last month, but holding well above the minus nine recorded in the weeks immediately after the vote. GfK also found [...]
Theresa May must get serious about economic reform for Britain to weather Brexit turbulence October 27, 2016 The Prime Minister must begin to explain Britain’s role in the world outside the EU – something ambitious enough to match the enormity of the public’s decision to vote Leave. But she must also start explaining the need for a more dynamic and competitive domestic economy outside the EU. The two are inextricably linked. Britain [...]
Fears for London IPO market as Misys and O2 pull 2016 float plans October 27, 2016 London’s stuttering initial public offering (IPO) market suffered more blows today as Misys pulled plans for a float and Telefonica said late on Wednesday it would not be listing O2 this year. City sources fear that, with investors spooked by Brexit uncertainty, it appears likely that other large deals will be abandoned or pushed back. Tech [...]
Embrace road pricing to build the infrastructure we actually need without government borrowing October 27, 2016 It is odds on that Philip Hammond will announce in the Autumn Statement that government spending constraints will be relaxed to facilitate investment in infrastructure. We will be told that the government should borrow and invest more and that this will promote growth in the long run. This argument might have merit if it were not for [...]
Autumn Statement 2016: What do strong GDP figures mean for Philip Hammond’s first spending spree? October 27, 2016 Next month's Autumn Statement may not be the mighty spending spree some had expected, as today's expectation-beating GDP figures could prompt a rethink inside the Treasury about how far they need to go. Chancellor Philip Hammond has promised a fiscal reset, although growth of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter is significantly up on economists' forecasts and [...]
Following better than expected third quarter GDP figures, have Project Fear’s warnings been disproved? October 27, 2016 David Blake, a professor at Cass Business School, City University London, says Yes. The Treasury’s pre-Brexit scaremongering has been proven so wrong, but it sticks to its original, completely implausible assumptions. Its latest position is that those forecasts were made based on the assumption that Article 50 would be triggered immediately, and that no policy response [...]
What do today’s GDP figures mean for UK interest rates? October 27, 2016 The Bank of England looks set to delay another bout of emergency stimulus next week after this morning’s strong GDP figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK grew by a robust 0.5 per cent this morning, defying already-revised expectations of a 0.3 per cent gain in the first three months after the [...]
Growth smashes expectations and Nissan is investing here, but the pound still marches lower October 27, 2016 Expectation-busting growth figures, a new commitment to build cars in the UK, and diminishing chances of an interest rate cut this year weren't enough to stop the pound falling into familiar patterns today. Sterling suffered its customary afternoon sell-off yet again as the currency lost 0.6 per cent against the dollar, falling below $1.22 in afternoon trading. It [...]