Should investors bulk up on bulk commodities ready for a bumper 2017? December 20, 2016 Resources firms were among the biggest victims when animal spirits were at their worst. Could they be among the biggest gainers now that fund managers have a spring in their step? Too much overcapacity, sluggish growth, debt piles, reduced dividends… Yes we’ve heard it all before. But 2016 has been another transition year for the [...]
2016: A post-mortem of the year the UK’s “economic experts” failed December 20, 2016 The end of a calendar year and the start of a new one provides a chance for reflection. For the UK’s economic establishment, particularly forecasters, introspection is more appropriate. Complete with their New Keynesian models, most have been proven utterly wrong so far that voting for Brexit would lead to a short-term downturn. As the most [...]
How to make the UK an innovation nation December 20, 2016 Prime Minister Theresa May intends to start 2017 with a flurry of policy announcements including apparently unveiling what Nick Timothy, her co-chief of staff, called “a more long-term and strategic approach to economic and industrial policy” in an article he published before he re-joined government. Industrial strategy is back. This is very welcome. But how does [...]
Weary RBS investors demand £1bn in compensation for 2008 rights issue disaster December 20, 2016 More than 27,000 RBS shareholders nearly wiped out in the bank’s 2008 rights issue are due compensation of up to 94.5p in the pound, or more than £1bn, according to an independent report commissioned by the investors and seen by City A.M. The shareholders, part of the RBS Shareholder Action Group, are heading to court [...]
Fiver producer Innovia Group sold in meaty £680m deal with Canadian giant December 20, 2016 Here's another big deal worth, ahem, noting: Innovia Group, supplier of the Bank of England’s new plastic five pound note that has come under fire for containing animal fat, has been snapped up by a Canadian label and packaging maker in a CA$1.13bn (£680m) move. The UK-based company makes specialty bi-axially oriented polypropylene films used for [...]
Diverging forecasts on inflation and GDP from leading economists point to uncertain times for the UK December 20, 2016 Following a year in which British people have allegedly “had enough of experts” – or should that be “soothsayers and astrologers”? – it is a brave economist who will venture a guess at where we will be in 12 months' time. But that is what three prominent economists have done for the Economic Research Council. [...]
The IMF has backed its chief Christine Lagarde after French court delivers a guilty verdict in negligence trial December 19, 2016 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backed managing director Christine Lagarde after French judges convicted her of negligence but imposed no punishment. The IMF's executive board said in a statement today it "reaffirms its full confidence in the managing director's ability to continue to effectively carry out her duties". Lagarde was found guilty of a state payout [...]
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen emphasises the necessity of a good education in today’s “changing economy” December 19, 2016 The US jobs market is the strongest it's been in nearly a decade, but technological advancements and globalisation mean job seekers must have a good education, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said today, speaking to new graduates. Advancements in technology and an increasingly globalised workplace mean there is more demand for higher-skilled jobs that require [...]
Uncertainty causes 20 per cent of market fluctuations says the ECB December 19, 2016 Uncertainty about the future has a measurable economic effect – and could account for as much as 20 per cent of fluctuations in the economy, according to a report by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB report said: “Macroeconomic uncertainty is estimated to have contributed significantly to real GDP growth fluctuations in the euro [...]
US services PMI sees December slowdown but continued health in the economy December 19, 2016 US services are experiencing a slight slowdown in December after peaking in October, according to a widely followed indicator of economic activity, but the indicator still shows healthy confidence levels in the world's largest economy. The US services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 53.4 in December, down from the 54.6 level last month, according to [...]