Economists react: Immigration from eastern Europe falls as net migration dips below 300,000 February 23, 2017 Immigration to the UK from countries in central and eastern Europe fell significantly in the year to September, including the period after the EU referendum, while net migration dipped below 300,000, new figures show. Emigration by nationals from the eight nations which joined the EU in 2004 tripled, according to the Office for National Statistics [...]
Trump and the markets: the good news and the bad news February 23, 2017 | City Talk The equity rally since Clinton was “Trump-ed” on 8 November has been the biggest for any new president since Herbert Hoover was elected in 1929. While some believe it marks the early stages of a paradigm shift, others have rationalised the move as “Trump without the bad stuff”. As hedge fund manager Seth Klarman recently [...]
Prices on the rise: What next for inflation? February 23, 2017 | City Talk Inflation is waking up Most of the major central banks are predicting rises in inflation. Price pressure was already beginning to build in 2016 as the world economy showed signs of improvement. Now the policies of a new Trump administration – lower taxes and increased government spending – could increase that pressure. The expectation among [...]
Retail sales bounce back as consumer spending continues to support the economy February 23, 2017 Retail sales rebounded in February after a dip to start the year, a new survey shows, as consumer spending continues to hold up despite inflation increases. Two in five retailers reported increased volumes in February to give a positive balance of nine per cent, according to the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) survey of distributive [...]
Brexit was the result of fake news narratives says the European Central Bank’s chief economist February 23, 2017 The UK’s vote to leave the EU was swayed by “negative popular narratives”, according to the chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB). Speaking in London, Peter Praet noted “fake news can flourish nowadays” owing to new technologies. He then added: “The outcome of the UK referendum can be partly attributed to the decades-long [...]
Experts are vital, but so is scepticism and debate – take it from the Bank of England’s Minouche Shafik February 23, 2017 Experts have come in for plenty of stick over the past 12 months. Michael Gove’s infamous assertion during the referendum campaign that “people have had enough” of them has entered political legend. His actual quote is overlooked: he was specifically criticising experts who worked at “organisations with acronyms” and who were “consistently getting it wrong”. So, [...]
Unilateral free trade: The selfless Brexit policy that is best for everyone February 23, 2017 There is a clear ethical choice at the heart of trade policy, with direct implications for Brexit. The choice is between selfish, self-interested or selfless policies. And the counter-intuitive truth is that it is selfless policies that maximise prosperity in the long term. So what is meant by selfish, self-interested and selfless? Selfish policies are [...]
British exporters are confident ahead of Brexit as Article 50 trigger looms February 23, 2017 Confidence among British exporters has jumped ahead of the official start of the Brexit process, a new poll shows, as revised figures reveal a 4.1 per cent increase in exports boosting UK growth at the end of 2016. A balance of 43 per cent of manufacturing firms expect turnover to increase over the next year, as Britain begins [...]
Maintaining London’s euro-clearing crown is vital to EU as well as the UK, says City of London MP Mark Field February 22, 2017 London’s deep, liquid markets and the breadth of its financial and professional services mean that it stands unrivalled as a European financial centre, which is one of the reasons why it has dominated the foreign exchange market in such a decisive way. The City’s traders now sell more than twice as many euros as all the [...]
UK growth revised upwards at end of year after manufacturing boost, but weaker first quarter drags on 2016 overall February 22, 2017 The UK economy grew faster than previously thought in the last three months of 2016, with the manufacturing sector delivering a late boost to growth after a weaker first quarter. Growth for the year was revised down to 1.8 per cent from two per cent after a slower performance in the first three months of [...]