Despite some giveback earlier this week, price action in markets has been reasonably encouraging for the bulls, especially in the past 48 hours.
In particular, a number of major asset prices have tested, held, and rallied from key support levels this week (including the S&P500, the NASDAQ100, and Bitcoin). In the case of Bitcoin, the price action was V shaped on heavy volumes, which points to near term capitulation. Often, the near term direction of Bitcoin leads the US equity market, especially at key turning points.
The key question, therefore, is: Does all of that mark a renewed phase of near term strength in US equity indices? Or, is this week’s rally merely a short lived bounce (before markets then retest, and possibly break below, their recent lows)? As we highlight in this brief clip, signals from our short term models offer insight in answering those questions.
Key macro data out today includes flash Markit manufacturing & service sector PMIs for France; Germany; the Eurozone; the UK, and the US (for the month of May). There’s also an update on Eurozone consumer confidence (i.e. the first estimate for May) as well as US existing home sales for April (due 3pm London time).