Trump, tariffs and GDP: How do you forecast uncertainty? April 12, 2025 The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), one of the UK’s central forecasters, prepared itself for President Trump’s tariff war – or at least partially. At a presentation after Chancellor Reeves’ Spring Statement, OBR chair Richard Hughes admitted the fiscal watchdog’s central forecast risked being completely undermined by global events. Hughes came up with three possible [...]
Londoners earn the most but spend very little, IFS finds April 11, 2025 Londoners top the ranking for income per head across the UK, yet spend very little after housing costs are taken into account, according to research by leading think tanks. A new report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) signals that high housing costs in the capital city [...]
China escalates fiery trade war with Trump with 125 per cent tariffs April 11, 2025 China has hit back at President Donald Trump as it announced further tariffs of 125 per cent on US goods in further signs that a full-blown trade war could still worsen. The US president refused to offer China a three-month reprieve from tariffs after it quickly retaliated against Trump following Liberation Day. The Chinese finance [...]
UK growth in February smashes low expectations April 11, 2025 The UK economy grew by 0.5 per cent in February, official data has shown, beating forecasters’ expectations by a wide margin. A Bloomberg poll of economists predicted growth to come in at 0.1 per cent for the month. UK GDP grew 0.6 per cent in the three months to February, the Office for National Statistics [...]
Layoffs creating bigger pool of jobseekers, recruiters say April 11, 2025 More people were added to the large pool of jobseekers in March than at any point since the pandemic, according to recruiters, as high levels of redundancies are driving a “steeper rise” in staff availability. Employers have come under greater strain in the months since Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ announced a £25bn national insurance tax raid [...]
Bank of England should be ‘more careful’ about rate cuts, say deputy governor April 10, 2025 A Bank of England rate-setter has said that policymakers need to be “more careful” about cutting rates after years of high inflation, adding that it was “too soon to say” whether President Trump’s tariffs will weigh on price growth in the UK. Sarah Breeden became the second official since Trump’s Rose Garden speech to take [...]
Stats body aims to publish key jobs data in late 2026 April 10, 2025 The UK’s official statistics body has set a target of November 2026 for the reform of its flagship Labour Force Survey (LFS), which monitors the UK jobs market. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has been dogged by several troubles in data gathering, prompting criticism from the Bank of England as well as an intervention [...]
Exclusive: Former Bank of England policymaker calls for interest rates to be held amid high inflation April 10, 2025 A former Bank of England rate-setter has suggested that high inflation levels call for interest rates to be held at 4.5 per cent in May. The majority of investors and analysts are expecting the Bank to cut interest rates next month to ease low growth concerns, with up to three more cuts priced in until [...]
Tariffs could destabilise UK financial system, Bank of England warns April 9, 2025 President Donald Trump’s global trade war is likely to destabilise the UK’s financial system, but the Bank of England has said banks will be able to cope with the shocks. The Bank’s policymakers also warned that the break-up of global trade would lower resilience and depress growth. The Financial Policy Committee (FPC), which monitors risks [...]
Rachel Reeves calls in City bosses for crisis tariff talks April 9, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to meet with top City bosses today amidst the fallout of President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught. Executives from Hargreaves Lansdown, Legal & General, Lloyds Banking Group and M&G will attend the Chancellor’s summit, according to Sky News. The talks will cover the Treasury’s financial services growth and competitiveness strategy, sources [...]