Brexit: Remainers plot the long game over customs union and Single Market: “We have the numbers”
Remainer MPs are expecting today’s debate on the customs union to be a wash-out – but longer term claim they “have the numbers” to force the government’s hand.
A motion tabled by senior MPs including Tories Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill and Sarah Wollaston will be debated this afternoon, squeezed between a number of urgent questions and another debate.
Both Labour and Conservative MPs have been given a one-line whip and the debate is not expected to result in a vote on whether to include “as an objective” establishing a customs union as part of the negotiations on the future relationship with the EU, which would not be binding.
Read more: The EU “customs partnership” is one of the most half-baked ideas in history
However amendments tabled to future legislation, including the Trade Bill and Cross Border Trade Bill are gaining momentum amongst Conservatives, threatening to upset Theresa May’s weak majority.
One Tory source said: “We know we’ve got the numbers. The chief whip has told Number 10 he can’t win it. That’s why the bills have been pushed back [into the autumn].”
The source said there were now at least 13 Tory rebels willing to defy the whip over the customs union, with more willing to abstain, having been a “big change” in mood over Christmas.
“Before Christmas [the numbers] were not great, but people went home for Christmas, spent time with their friends and families, spoke to people who are running businesses who said ‘what the hell are you doing?’… Businesses have been speaking to their MPs and it’s having the effect we suspected it would have,” the MP added. “There is a new hardcore.”
The customs union has been backed by business groups such as the Confederation of British Industry, while the Institute of Directors has put forward proposals for a partial customs union.
However many Leavers argue that it would be a betrayal of the referendum result. It has been repeatedly ruled out by the Prime Minister and other Cabinet ministers.
The issue has resurfaced in light of an apparent stalemate over the Irish border – which the sources said was another factor tipping MPs on both sides towards favouring a softer Brexit. This would not be solved by staying in the customs union alone, but the Remainers were confident that “if you get customs union, the next step is Single Market.”
“People are not going to stick their necks out today because it’s not legally binding, Labour’s not going to call a vote and nobody [on the Conservative side] wants to embarrass the government a week before the local elections,” said a Labour MP.
But ultimately, “whether we stay in the Single Market is absolutely in Jeremy’s hands,” he added.
Read more: Drop “never-ending domestic political game” over customs union: BCC