Our shadow MPC votes 8-1 against changing policy

ALLISTER HEATH | CITY A.M.
“No new quantitative easing and no further cut to rates. The money supply has bounced back – the broad measure is enjoying its fastest six-month rate of growth since 2008, a remarkable turnaround which suggests the Bank doesn’t need to expand the monetary base any further. Current real money growth rates are similar to early 2009, ahead of a year of solid expansion.”

GRAEME LEACH | INSTITUTE OF DIRECTORS
“The best thing the MPC can do this month is sit there and do nothing. We need to wait and see whether or not the recent improvement in the targeted money supply is sustained”

GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
“No change. With a month to go before QE ends, the Bank will have to make an important decision on whether to continue buying bonds in November. Sticky inflation and improving conditions suggests suspending the programme.”

VICKY REDWOOD | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“Cut interest rates, continue with the QE already in progress and lay the ground for doing more QE in November when the current purchases are completed. The recovery is still not getting off the ground.”

HOLGER SCHMIEDING | BERENBERG BANK
“No change to interest rates or QE. The third quarter numbers will look better, as the depressing effect of the Jubilee unwinds. More stimulus may be needed – but the current QE programme is still running.”

SIMON WARD | HENDERSON
“Hold rates, end QE in November. There is no liquidity shortage – non-financial M4 grew by 5.2 per cent annualised in the six months to August, the fastest for four years. Inflation remains stuck above target.”

VICKY PRYCE | FORMER GOVT ADVISER
“Hold but consider both a rate cut and further QE for November. Inflation is moving to target, GDP forecasts for 2013 look poor and the Eurozone crisis continues . Other government lending initiatives are slow in having an impact.”

TREVOR WILLIAMS | LLOYDS TSB
“Hold Bank rate. The economy is showing signs of improving, and growth will return in the third quarter – perhaps as much as one per cent. QE should stay in place for now; given uncertainties.”

ROSS WALKER | RBS
“No change on both counts. The most logical course is for the Bank to make its remaining gilt purchases over the next month and to decide whether to extend QE in November in the context of the next Inflation Report.”