Analyst picks


My pick: Short Aussie-dollar, sterling-dollar, and long dollar-yen
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: A few hours to a few weeks

The technically-driven dollar-yen pullback was boosted by the weak US first quarter 2013 GDP figure; losses could extend back to ¥96.60, which would be an attractive spot to buy. Meanwhile, the sterling-dollar continues to rally, closing in on my preferred selling area of $1.5540/60. I like the Aussie-dollar lower, after a retest of $1.0400, coincidentally also the 200 day moving average. Watch the European Central Bank on Thursday, and US non-farm payrolls on Friday. A big week is coming up.


My pick: Stay long euro-dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months

I bought euro-dollar at $1.2934 on 5 April, as prices broke trend line resistance defining the down move from the 1 February swing. I looked at this as a trigger to trade ebbing debt crisis worries, and a shift in focus back to European Central Bank versus Fed balance sheet dynamics. This is supportive for the pair as the Fed continues to ease, while Mario Draghi slowly tightens. I’ve now revised my stop-loss to the breakeven level and continue to hold long, targeting a break above $1.3200.


My pick: Short euro-yen and euro-sterling, long sterling-Kiwi
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

Risk was the foundation of my set-ups last week, but the theme of capital seeking safety or yield never developed momentum. The potential is still there, however, and a short euro-yen below ¥125 can reflect that drive. Still well below price, it ensures risk aversion with a possible back-up catalyst in the European Central Bank decision. A euro-sterling break below a key 38.2 per cent Fib at £0.8400 is more distinctly euro-based. Finally a sterling-Kiwi inverse head and shoulders break above NZ$1.8275 is more risk.