Are investors underestimating the risks of the Scottish independence referendum? August 5, 2014 Bill O’Neill, head of the UK investment office at UBS Wealth Management, says Yes. So far, the independence debate has been black or white: union or separation. Yes, the market is anticipating a rejection, which would see a modestly positive reaction in sterling, gilts and equities. But investors need to consider the wider picture presented [...]
Scottish independence could have “material adverse effect” on RBS, says bank August 1, 2014 RBS has reiterated that a vote for Scottish independence would negatively impact its business. Although the initial comments were in a statement in April, the bank today said in its half-yearly report that a yes vote could change the "fiscal, monetary, legal and regulatory landscape to which the group is subject". It also mentioned the prospect [...]
Scotland puts on a show at Commonwealth Games ahead of independence vote July 23, 2014 Scotland put on a high-energy Commonwealth Games opening ceremony featuring a bevy of celebrities, including Billy Connolly and Rod Stewart, before the Queen and a TV audience of hundreds of millions. It was a colourful, chest-beating show by the city of Glasgow at Celtic Park, no doubt intended to stir the emotions of every [...]
North Sea oil forecast hits Alex Salmond’s Scottish independence plan July 10, 2014 The bid for Scottish independence took another hit yesterday, when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgraded its forecast on North Sea oil and gas revenues by a quarter. The economy watchdog said in its annual fiscal sustainability report that it now expected around £40bn would be raised between 2019-20 and 2040-41, due to declining [...]
Investors flee Scotland ahead of independence referendum July 9, 2014 Businesses are diverting investment away from Scotland and into other areas like the north of England because of the uncertainty around September’s independence referendum, PwC bosses said yesterday. And the business services group’s chairman Ian Powell added that being part of a larger trading bloc will be beneficial for the UK and Scotland, particularly in [...]
UBS: A No vote on Scottish independence will still shake financial markets July 9, 2014 International investors aren't taking the Scottish referendum seriously enough. That's the verdict from Swiss bank UBS. In all their discussions with investors, "the topic of Scotland's independence referendum (if it is mentioned at all) is generally not treated seriously". Globally, the media has treated the referendum as a light entertainment story, and Google data suggests [...]
Independence Day euphoria: Stocks nearly always jump before 4 July July 4, 2014 Yesterday saw tremendous performance by US stock markets as they closed early for the week, reflecting the national Independence Day holiday, which falls today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved above the 17,000 mark for the first time in its history, propelled by labour market data that crushed analyst expectations. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised [...]
Fear of Scottish independence behind Glasgow’s £500m boost from Treasury says Sturgeon July 3, 2014 Scotland’s deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon has played down a £500m funding announcement by David Cameron, suggesting the money is in response to the threat of Scottish independence, an outcome the Prime Minister is keen to avoid. Cameron announced Glasgow as the first Scottish city to win a sought-after city deal with the Treasury yesterday, [...]
Ships ahoy as Silicon Valley Bank sets sail for Independence Day summer party July 3, 2014 Silicon Valley Bank UK’s boss Phil Cox may hail from Cornwall rather than California, but he’s still keen for the bank’s British employees to celebrate the 4th of July in style. Employees at the Lothbury branch of the bank will be setting sail on a cruise along the Thames this evening for the outfit’s aptly-timed [...]
Scottish independence will work as currency competition laboratory – Australian central bank staffer July 2, 2014 If the Scots vote for independence this September, the country could be a testing ground for currency competition, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia's assistant governor, Guy Debelle. But Debelle cautioned today that private issuance of competing currencies in Scotland has been tried before, and while it worked well for a spell, was [...]