Saturday 13 September 2014 10:45 am

No campaign stretches lead to 8 points ahead of Scottish independence referendum – poll


Billy Ehrenberg is a Data Journalist and Content Developer at City A.M. He can be contacted at billy.ehrenberg@cityam.com. He is particularly passionate about data visualisation and telling stories with numbers.

Billy Ehrenberg is a Data Journalist and Content Developer at City A.M. He can be contacted at billy.ehrenberg@cityam.com. He is particularly passionate about data visualisation and telling stories with numbers.

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A new poll by Survation has given the No camp a seven point lead, showing 49 per cent to 42 per cent disparity.

Excluding don't knows, the gap stretches to eight percentage points in favour of No: 54 per cent plays 46 per cent.

Any single poll can be incredibly misleading when taken in isolation, and many statistical models, such as that of Nate Silver, the ex-New York Times blogger, take averages across many polls to aggregate a more solid predictive model.

 

A look at the tables from the poll shows that, when undecided voters are removed, men (50 per cent) were more likely to vote yes than women (43.3 per cent).

When viewed by age, 35-44 year olds were the most pro-independence group, with 58.5 per cent indicating they would vote yes if the referendum were held today. 

There were few surprises when the data was viewed by political leanings. Only 0.6 per cent of Conservative voters would vote Yes, while 30.7 per cent of Scottish Labour supporters would plump for independence. The SNP? No prizes. 


 

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