Brexit: It’s time to start considering an extension to the transition period
It’s time to face facts: the clock is ticking and we are yet to hear of an agreed Cabinet position on our future relationship with the EU, let alone one that has been signed off by Brussels.
Even if they were minded to smooth our departure from the European Union – and they’re not – getting a deal that satisfies the 27 various vested interests will almost certainly take longer than the remain time afforded to us since invoking Article 50. The prospect that a deal will be agreed in October is looking increasingly unlikely – already, Westminster insiders are talking about December or even February as the end point. Remember, we’re leaving in March.
This will not be news to some businesses, and it is something that can be factored in – but one of the consequences of the delay in progress is that time will almost certainly have to be bought from somewhere.
Yesterday, a cross-party group of MPs joined other prominent voices in calling for an extension to Article 50 and the transition period, which is currently set to end on New Year’s Eve 2020.
While this might cause concern among some of the more bullish Brexiters, there is reason to contemplate it as a valid solution.
Done right, an extension of the transition period would not, as Jacob Rees-Mogg has suggested in the past, prolong a painful purgatory, but give politicians the time to ensure the best possible deal is agreed while offering businesses some much-needed breathing space.
Extending the Article 50 deadline is probably a none starter as far as Brussels is concerned, but prolonging transition could conceivably be agreed to, provided that a hard end-point is included along with an acceptance that it cannot be extended again.
This would offer a lifeline to businesses worried – thanks to the slow rate of progress thus far that they do not have the time to prepare, while guaranteeing the will of the people is carried out. There is no point in demanding complex matters be concluded by an impossible deadline, or by harming businesses and the wider economy, simply on the principle of sticking to our guns.
Business groups such as the British Chambers of Commerce and Confederation of British Industry have long argued that the 21 month transition period is not enough.
Last weekend international trade secretary Liam Fox indicated he would back a time-limited extension, and as City A.M. has previously revealed, other Cabinet colleagues including Vote Leave campaigner Michael Gove are coming around to the idea.
Downing Street is unlikely to contemplate this idea aloud, but let’s hope they’re considering it in private.