Theresa May will have to compromise on the customs union
Yesterday was Europe Day, the EU’s annual celebration of the ideals behind the project.
In London, the occasion was recognised by a display of member states’ flags in Parliament Square. A reminder, perhaps, that the UK has yet to leave the EU.
Just yards away from the display, members of the House of Lords were doubtless raising a glass of subsidised champagne, having chalked up another blow for the government in a series of legislative defeats that will force the elected Commons to consider amendments that would keep the UK in the customs union – and even in the Single Market.
Read more: Brexiters making their peace with “temporary” extension to customs union
Politicians who see it as their duty to resist Brexit have been emboldened by the government’s failure to set out a clear plan for life outside the EU. In the absence of a concrete position on customs arrangements, Remain-supporting MPs and peers can cause headaches and havoc with a string of votes and schemes designed to put pressure on Theresa May and the more enthusiastic Brexiteers.
But speaking yesterday, May was clear: “we are leaving the customs union and the Single Market,” she told MPs. Details, however, remain thin and the cabinet remains divided. A so-called Customs Partnership is favoured by civil servants yet dismissed by Boris Johnson as “crazy.” On the other hand, “Max Fax” (maximum facilitation) is promoted by Brexiteers as a way to manage the Irish border without remaining in a customs union that would limit the UK’s ability to conduct its own trade policy.
Faced with near-impossible parliamentary arithmetic, May is said to be working on a third way. This could, as floated yesterday by former minister Nick Boles, include negotiating a temporary customs union that would expire by early 2022, after which point the UK shifts to a ‘customs cooperation’ system, which borrows a bit from the two options currently under consideration.
Interestingly, leading Brexiteer Douglas Carswell replied to Boles on twitter, conceding that the idea “seems sensible.” Has peace broken out? Could May pull of a great compromise? Will it calm the two wings of her party, currently so at odds?
One thing is clear: leaving the EU was always going to take time. The break, when it comes, should be clean. Rush it, and it will be messy.