YES
While the situation is fluid, the possibility of long-term conflict and a potential civil war is held back by several mitigating factors. Certainly, the trials of Muslim Brotherhood leaders later this year may lead to heightened tensions in the near term, if not all-out conflict. But the Egyptian “deep state” (army, judiciary and bureaucracy) has typically remained unified in its mistrust of the Muslim Brotherhood, meaning that a split in the armed forces – with some supporting the protesters – remains unlikely. Further mitigating risks of the worst-case scenario, the Muslim Brotherhood has called on its supporters to remain non-violent. Whether they are able to enforce this is hard to say, given the casualties and ferocity of the crackdown, but it is an encouraging sign of the leadership’s non-violent intentions. Furthermore, the government has postponed planned security operations that were due to take place on Monday and Tuesday. This move may rekindle expectations of a more peaceful outcome. Raza Agha is chief economist for the Middle East and Africa at VTB Capital.
No
The situation in Egypt is at risk of escalating into all-out conflict between the military and liberal-learning opposition on one side, and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. With over 500 already killed, signs point to General Sisi, commander of the armed forces, continuing the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood and possibly attempting a widespread purge. To do so would not only delegitimise the ballot box – the Muslim Brotherhood is a potent political machine that received over 50 per cent of the votes in the 2012 presidential election – but will give extremists renewed vigour. There is a danger that some Brotherhood members will also resort to violence: 21 police stations and scores of Coptic churches have been burnt already this week. Unless steps are taken to diffuse the crisis, Egypt will descend into long-term bloodshed. We may be in for a repeat of the violent insurgency seen in Egypt during the 1990s. Dr Fawaz Gerges is professor of Middle Eastern politics and international relations at the London School of Economics.