UK growth expected to continue on trend as emerging economies slow

The UK is expected to continue its recent trend of growth, according to research from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The OECD’s leading indicator for the UK was 100.7 in May (100 is the long-term average, while a reading of 100.1 indicates growth), down 0.07 per cent month-on-month, but up an encouraging 1.25 per cent from June 2012.

Source: OECD

The data follows a number of other positive UK figures, including a 27 month high for the purchasing managers’ index for the services sector, a 25 month high for that of the construction sector, and a 28 month high for manufacturing. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 2.1 per cent in May and mortgage approvals soared.

Given the recent stream of good data, JP Morgan bumped up its UK GDP forecast on Friday, predicting a 1.6 per cent rise for 2013 and 2.6 per cent in 2014 (up from 1.2 and 2.0 per cent respectively).

Source: JP Morgan

IHS Global Insight also revised its forecast up today, predicting 1.1 per cent growth in 2013 (from 1.0 per cent), and 1.8 per cent growth in 2016 (from 1.6 per cent).

The leading indicator for the OECD area as a whole was 100.6 in May (up 0.61 per cent year-on-year), 100.3 in the Euro area (up 0.64 per cent), and 99.6 in the major five Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea – down 0.22 per cent).

Source: OECD