GDP estimate sees decline in three months to February

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research GDP estimate has seen GDP fall by 0.1 per cent in the three months to February (release). The previous reading has been revised down to -0.2 per cent from flat.

The National Institute interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while “depression” is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak. Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time. We do not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2015.