Starting off our day of US jobs data, we have ADP (a measure of private sector employment), and it's a strong beat. Rising from 135,000 to 188,000, while economists had only been hoping for a figure as high as 160,000.
Paul Dales, senior US economist at Capital Economics:
The 188,000 increase in the ADP measure of US private payroll employment in June is encouraging but doesn’t mean the official payrolls data (due Friday) will be just as good. This is the largest increase since February and comfortably beat May’s 134,000 gain. The problem, though, is that in recent months the ADP survey has been weaker than the official payroll data. The improvement in June may therefore just be due to the ADP survey “catching up” with the official data rather than due to a meaningful pick-up in jobs growth. As such, we are sticking to our forecast that official payrolls rose by around 150,000 last month. That said, this upbeat survey does settle our nerves a bit after the further fall in the employment index of the ISM manufacturing survey.
Since ADP changed methodology, it correlates better w/ private payrolls. But still absolute average miss is 40K. Far from perfect.— Mike Jackson (@bondscoop) July 3, 2013
Later we have initial jobless claims (expected to fall from 346,000 to 345,000) and the employment sub index of the ISM non-manufacturing report.