Argentina is the world's best performing stock market this year and nine other things no-one saw coming

Peter Spence
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Traders in Buenos Aires, Argentina (Source: Getty)

Deutsche Bank's weekender email contains several nuggets that they doubt anyone really saw coming.

They ask recipients to email in if they correctly predicted any of the following at the start of 2014:

  1. A narrower trading range in dollar/euro than renminbi spot
  2. Irish 10-year bond yields below both UK Gilts and US Treasuries
  3. Japan as the country with the highest inflation rate among advanced economies
  4. Stronger first quarter output growth in the Eurozone periphery than in America
  5. BIITS equity markets up double digits in dollar terms on average
  6. A Greek government primary surplus
  7. Iron ore prices down a third and nickel up a third despite both used primarily to make steel
  8. A drop of 200,000 unemployed in the periphery but a rise in unemployment across the rest of the Eurozone
  9. America's trade deficit (goods and services combined as a percentage of output) being smaller than Japan's
  10. Best performing stock market: Argentina.

Only one of these doesn't seem a complete shock: Japan's rising inflation. By the end of 2013 it was apparent that Japan was the only G7 constituent to see inflation moving upwards.