Our favourite way to forecast the US jobs numbers

This remains our favourite way to predict the US labour data release.

 

Last time this was tried Bob the cat was well off - but that's because her options were restricted from 150,000 to 230,000.

Nonfarm payroll additions came in at a seasonally adjusted 74,000 for December.

While the method's accuracy may be a little suspect, human analysts got it wrong as well. They had been expecting a number around 196,000.

This month we're hoping that Geoffrey Boycat will be closer to the mark. He expects job additions of 170,000 this month.

 

Consensus estimates suggest that the US economy will have added 185,000 jobs in January. We'll have the number at around 1.30pm today.

Update: Geoffrey beat the humans this month

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