US weather unlikely to hit first quarter GDP - but that's not necessarily good news

While freezing cold was given for the blame for Friday's poor jobs data, Deutsche Bank's chief US economist Joseph LaVorgna doesn't think we'll see the weather "meaningfully dampen current quarter GDP."

But LaVorgna does warn that it is "way too early to say with any precision".

This doesn't mean that the weather isn't bad news - just that GDP doesn't measure the value of goods and services accurately. It doesn't capture non-tradeable goods - in this case weather.

LaVorgna expects the reduction in construction, and bricks and mortar retail sales to be offset by higher spending on online sales, heating and other services.

It's true that the snow won't clear itself, but people would rather be spending money on other things than clean up.

Consumers and businesses who had planned to invest and spend are instead using money to clear away snow. Much better to have no bad weather at all, and have spent that money on the things they had planned to in its absence.

Societe Generale's Kit Juckes expects that we'll have to wait a few months to see how US weather has affected the economy.