Societe Generale's Kit Juckes thinks 2013 has been "a bad year for bonds, a worse year for the yen and a truly awful one for gold."
When it comes to predictions for next year, Juckes thinks it unlikely that the US recovery (which, he stresses, is sub-par) will be de-railed until policy changes.
Consensus is for growth of 2.6 per cent, carrying on the current trend. But risks affecting that forecast are, explains Juckes, heavily tilted to the upside:
Steady employment growth, the recovery in real wage growth, and the prospect of continued monetary accommodation and a lack of fiscal tightening will help put a floor under growth rates.
So let's put it this way: if 2.6 per cent is consensus, then four per cent is as likely as 1.9 per cent.
Juckes says that US growth at the bottom of that range will mean very little change in policy - "perhaps some talk of a return to more QE, but mostly, just more zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) for even longer."
At the top end, pressure for tightening will mount. So, when it comes to markets, he thinks:
Risk assets (equities, corporate bonds, EM and higher-beta FX) are'OK' for now but vulnerable to volatility if Treasury yields spike.
Makes USD/JPY set fair to rally further in the first quarter but likely to run out of steam when/if risk appetite is hit by higher yields.
The US will help stop Europe from sliding back into recession and this, says Juckes,
is a decent argument for owning five-year European bonds from the US or UK, but is not an argument in favour of trading EUR/USD with any great conviction.