Iron ore prices are set to crash by 40pc. Here's why

Demand for major commodities was strong this year, but supply topped it. When it came iron ore, demand outweighed supply on a relative basis because it was stronger and there was marginal shortage in the market, but many analysts don't expect that to remain the case.

By 2015, Goldman forecasts "major oversupply" of iron ore, with supply expansion pushing down prices.

Stocks in iron ore have been out-performing copper - iron ore prices are down around four per cent year-on-year while copper has declined about 10 per cent - but Goldman Sachs expects the reverse to be the case in 2014, with a high correlation when it comes to stocks.

Prices will begin to fall from next year, says Goldman, declining to an average of $80 per tonne (cost and freight) in 2015 (around a 43 per cent drop versus today).


Goldman's analysts estimate that around 120m extra tonnes will be delivered in 2014 from projects such as Rio Tinto's Pilbara (pictured) and BHP billiton's WAIO. 2015 will see an additional 130m tonnes, they forecast.

But analysts at Citi say they're ahead of consensus when it comes to outlook for 2014, because they believe iron ore will remain elevated for another year before weakening in 2015.

JP Morgan agree. The investment bank thinks that iron earnings ore will stay "stronger for a bit longer". It's revised its 2014/15 pricing forecast to $125/110 per tonne, saying that Chinese crude steel output will "continue to surprise on the upside".