Will they/Won't they? US macro data may not be released for weeks as government reopens


We've been more or less flying blind without US macroeconomic data during the shutdown - now market watchers are trying to work out when new data will be released.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank have suggested that we're going to see all of those reports hit at once. Brett Ryan of Deutsche Bank said that "when an agreement is ultimately reached, market participants could get an avalanche of data releases - including those that were delayed."

But Paul Dales, senior US economist at Capital Economics, disagrees. He says not to expect a flood of economic reports - and that "it will be some weeks yet before all of the economic data releases that were postponed during the government shutdown are published."

This is critical because the Federal Reserve's decision on timing of asset purchase reductions will depend on the strength of the economy. According to Dales, the Fed may not have a complete picture of the economy when it meets on 29-30 October.


Dales notes that the government's statistical agencies haven't yet said what will happen to the reports that were put on hold as a result of the shutdown, but looking at what happened after the shutdowns of 1995 and 1996 an avalanche of reports looks unlikely.

That doesn't count for all the data however. Dales says that some of September's reports can be expected soon, as the shutdown began on 1 October all of the September data has been collected in full. So September's employment report may be published next Friday.

Those waiting for consumer price and retail sales data may be less fortunate. Dales thinks we might have to wait at least another two weeks.